UNGLY nearly.trade

ungly.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 30.00% of it (0.600% per buy, 0.600% per sell; creator_bps 5000, platform_bps 4000).
Evidence: launch ungly.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (5c33c6218d47e00ef229f60da78d0897e1ee9665312550b8afd5f9c7bc6957d2) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 34 % (719 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 86 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: unugly.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-23 12:31:05 UTC, 209.0 min after the launch: FJpi8Rx3HuWwW…Rsjp3.
Outside buyers' net result: -3.91 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.43 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 86% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-23 09:02:04 UTC · block 221217530 · history: launch only
Transaction	XDmCfHb59f1Fu…yR3NJ
Creator	unugly.near explorer
Pool	ungly.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	9.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 50.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-23 15:02 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-23 15:02 UTC
Price now	0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.86x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	4 of 10 · 40%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 10 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	209.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	10	10	10	10	10
Buyers spent	64.66 NEAR	64.66 NEAR	64.66 NEAR	64.66 NEAR	64.66 NEAR
Buyers net result	+0.72 NEAR	-2.52 NEAR	-2.65 NEAR	-2.71 NEAR	-3.91 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Insiders' net result	+0.76 NEAR	+0.21 NEAR	+0.17 NEAR	+0.16 NEAR	-0.43 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.13x	1.13x	1.13x	1.13x	1.13x
Holders	8	5	4	3	0
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.8% · holds	0.8% · holds	0.8% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	5.4% · 7 of 10 hold	2.5% · 4 of 10 hold	2.4% · 2 of 10 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	—
All early buyers (the six rows above)	5.4% · 10 wallets	2.5% · 10 wallets	2.4% · 10 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	93.8%	96.6%	96.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 10 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	115 s after buying · transaction	+0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
2	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	15.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
3	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 bot_developer	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
4	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	11.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
5	tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	62 s after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
6	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	5 s · transaction	20.16 NEAR	not sold	-0.41 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 2.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	onlyrekt.near	6 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.0096 NEAR	pair bought within 2.8 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 118 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 90 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 123 of 395 launches (not put in a group)
8	5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc	15 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.29 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 69 of those launches pair bought within 11.3 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 46 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	23 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	5.1 min after buying · transaction	-1.99 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 0.7 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	24 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.12 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 20.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of unugly.near

None known.