In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+30
144 of the 293 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 144 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 49%.
Trade tax 4.00% buy / 4.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (2.800% per buy, 2.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
Received 10.17 NEAR 3 min before the launch from 82030f49b33bc464094eaf9811ed121fc74fa549c51073d1183aa7f0c2c5f4f9, whose earlier launch msg.nearlytrade.near (made by msgdev.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Outside buyers' net result: -6.83 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.07 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-04 09:31:41 UTC · block 218479165 · history: launch only
buy 4.00% · sell 4.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-04 10:12 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-04 10:12 UTC
Price now
0.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.88x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
0 of 5 · 0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
<0.01% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 3 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
4
4
5
5
5
Buyers spent
59.68 NEAR
59.68 NEAR
60.67 NEAR
60.67 NEAR
60.67 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.19 NEAR
-1.49 NEAR
-6.73 NEAR
-6.83 NEAR
-6.83 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
2
2
2
2
2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Insiders' net result
+0.07 NEAR
+0.07 NEAR
+0.07 NEAR
+0.07 NEAR
+0.07 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.08x
1.08x
1.08x
1.08x
1.08x
Holders
5
5
3
4
4
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
<0.01% · holds
<0.01% · holds
<0.01% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
0% · 0 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
5.0% · 3 of 3 hold
5.0% · 3 of 3 hold
0% · 0 of 3 hold
Other early buyers
0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
5.2% · 4 wallets
5.2% · 4 wallets
0% · 5 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
94.8%
94.8%
100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 1 merged
100% · 1 merged
100% · 0 merged
The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 5 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.