UNSLEPT nearly.trade

unslept.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch unslept.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 6 % (545 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 13.86 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 163.5% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: 57a9653efcb9d1a383633…759d8 (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 21:24:35 UTC, 14.0 min after the launch: 48inXrN6wiR89…6Zb9W.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -13.86 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.75 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 21:10:32 UTC · block 217684649 · history: launch only
Transaction8tP2k76UaQGQd…8PhRH
Creator57a9653efcb9d1a383633e474f9fb41266e2924e9e47bc8d6496036d8b1759d8 explorer
Poolunslept.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy3.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-05 00:03 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-05 00:03 UTC
Price now0.97x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.50x the peak
Outside buyers in profit9 of 26 · 34.6%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 16 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%163.5%163.5%163.5%163.5%
Dev's first sell after launch—14.0 min14.0 min14.0 min14.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2525252525
Buyers spent441.29 NEAR441.29 NEAR441.29 NEAR441.29 NEAR441.29 NEAR
Buyers net result-1.24 NEAR-13.85 NEAR-13.86 NEAR-13.86 NEAR-13.86 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%163.5%163.5%163.5%163.5%
Insiders' net result+0.64 NEAR+1.75 NEAR+1.75 NEAR+1.75 NEAR+1.75 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.91x1.91x1.91x1.91x1.91x
Holders133225
Top 10 holders' share99.3%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.3% · holds 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 7.6% · 6 of 16 hold 0% · 0 of 16 hold 0% · 0 of 16 hold
Other early buyers 0.9% · 5 of 9 hold <0.01% · 2 of 9 hold <0.01% · 1 of 9 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)8.5% · 25 wallets0% · 25 wallets0% · 25 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)91.2%100%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)99.3%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder99.3% · 2 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 neardotneardot.near 24 s · transaction 14.92 NEAR 100 s after buying · transaction +8.00 NEAR
pair bought within 41.4 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 41.4 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.1 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
2 d0tz.near 59 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 4.4 min after buying · transaction -1.34 NEAR
pair bought within 16.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.3 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
3 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 66 s · transaction 15.84 NEAR 3.1 min after buying · transaction +6.69 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
4 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 66 s · transaction 23.76 NEAR 3.1 min after buying · transaction +9.72 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
5 b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 66 s · transaction 15.84 NEAR 3.5 min after buying · transaction +1.09 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 66 s · transaction 15.84 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction +1.41 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
7 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 66 s · transaction 15.84 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction +1.86 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 76 s · transaction 4.72 NEAR 105 s after buying · transaction +0.47 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 19.2 s of sessssssssss.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.2 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9 bem1ne.near 79 s · transaction 4.95 NEAR 6.1 min after buying · transaction -0.96 NEAR
pair bought within 16.1 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.4 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.4 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
10 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e 81 s · transaction 25.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction +4.93 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches
pair bought within 2.3 s of nonearforyou.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
11 nonearforyou.near 83 s · transaction 19.90 NEAR 3.6 min after buying · transaction -2.44 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches
pair bought within 2.3 s of 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
12 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d 95 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 2.8 min after buying · transaction +4.16 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of sessssssssss.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
13 sessssssssss.near 95 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 3.2 min after buying · transaction -0.94 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches
pair bought within 19.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
14 48a6361aadd0728…8230f 98 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 3.1 min after buying · transaction -6.08 NEAR none found
15 ajida.near 109 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 7.3 min after buying · transaction -0.77 NEAR none found
16 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f 119 s · transaction 20.83 NEAR 2.6 min after buying · transaction -4.60 NEAR
pair bought within 8.9 s of c56af31c5d7bb18…08101 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 52.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17 d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a 2.1 min · transaction 40.00 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction -1.28 NEAR
pair bought within 43.8 s of nonearforyou.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 c56af31c5d7bb18…08101 2.1 min · transaction 20.83 NEAR 2.5 min after buying · transaction -6.03 NEAR
pair bought within 8.9 s of 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 65f4b6882bc1d56…5fc6b 2.3 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 2.3 min after buying · transaction -2.46 NEAR none found
20 a56af80bbfe8aef…157d2 2.5 min · transaction 43.78 NEAR 2.5 min after buying · transaction -15.12 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 57a9653efcb9d1a383633…759d8

None known.