URT nearly.trade

urt.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 50 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +30
    1 of the 2 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (1 by the creator); smoothed rug share 35%.
    Evidence: launch nart.nearlytrade.near
  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch urt.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 15 % (1043 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 59 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: yildirimoflu.near (dev).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -18.33 NEAR · insiders' net result: +42.30 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 59% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 14:13:25 UTC · block 217787416 · history: launch only
Transaction4FwApmc2L5jaw…v7pEN
Creatoryildirimoflu.near explorer
Poolurt.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy43.37 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:50 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-29 16:53 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch————145.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2525252525
Buyers spent353.09 NEAR353.09 NEAR353.09 NEAR353.09 NEAR353.09 NEAR
Buyers net result-15.43 NEAR-18.02 NEAR-18.32 NEAR-18.32 NEAR-18.33 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR+42.30 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.51x1.51x1.51x1.51x1.51x
Holders65465
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 1.9% · 3 of 22 hold 0.7% · 2 of 22 hold <0.01% · 1 of 22 hold
Other early buyers 0.0% · 1 of 3 hold 0.0% · 1 of 3 hold 0.0% · 1 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)1.9% · 25 wallets0.7% · 25 wallets0.0% · 25 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)98.0%99.3%100.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 betteralex.near 30 s · transaction 19.40 NEAR 2.3 min after buying · transaction +2.94 NEAR
group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of gigasnipe.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of samegrain2799.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of steepgoat5771.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
2 samegrain2799.near 31 s · transaction 19.40 NEAR 2.5 min after buying · transaction +0.35 NEAR
group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of gigasnipe.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of betteralex.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of steepgoat5771.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
3 steepgoat5771.near 31 s · transaction 19.40 NEAR 2.6 min after buying · transaction -0.97 NEAR
group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of gigasnipe.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of samegrain2799.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of betteralex.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
4 gigasnipe.near 31 s · transaction 19.40 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction -0.27 NEAR
group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of samegrain2799.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of betteralex.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of steepgoat5771.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
5 3347dd8076331ad…52407 37 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 2.5 min after buying · transaction -0.04 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 15.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.8 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 24.8 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
6 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 37 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction -0.13 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 15.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.2 s of d0tz.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 43.4 s of barrey.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 14 more pairs · all pairs
7 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 39 s · transaction 1.98 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction -0.04 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches
pair bought within 1.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
8 d0tz.near 50 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 93 s after buying · transaction +7.73 NEAR
pair bought within 12.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.3 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
9 frigid_polar1.u….near 53 s · transaction 19.00 NEAR 109 s after buying · transaction -2.18 NEAR
pair bought within 15.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 e8a162641a55288…58210 53 s · transaction 8.00 NEAR 103 s after buying · transaction -0.24 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 15.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 16 more pairs · all pairs
11 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 55 s · transaction 24.80 NEAR 2.3 min after buying · transaction -6.05 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches
pair bought within 1.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.7 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
12 oliut100.near 55 s · transaction 19.84 NEAR 5.8 min after buying · transaction -5.82 NEAR
pair bought within 15.9 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
13 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 62 s · transaction 7.98 NEAR 90 s after buying · transaction -0.44 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.8 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
14 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 62 s · transaction 7.98 NEAR 90 s after buying · transaction -0.62 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
15 b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 62 s · transaction 7.98 NEAR 90 s after buying · transaction -0.80 NEAR
group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 14 more pairs · all pairs
16 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 62 s · transaction 7.98 NEAR 90 s after buying · transaction -0.97 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.8 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
17 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 63 s · transaction 7.98 NEAR 89 s after buying · transaction -1.13 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.8 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.8 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.8 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
18 579b7294974b54d…30203 71 s · transaction 7.00 NEAR 97 s after buying · transaction -1.63 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 8.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.6 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.3 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 13 more pairs · all pairs
19 darknes.near 79 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 23 s after buying · transaction -0.24 NEAR
pair bought within 41.1 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.0 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
20 barrey.near 81 s · transaction 4.96 NEAR 84 s after buying · transaction -0.97 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches
pair bought within 43.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.3 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of yildirimoflu.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-27 20:55 UTC nearly.trade nart.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-09-27 20:56 UTC nearly.trade nart-2.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:05 UTC nearly.trade ear-3.nearlytrade.near 55 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:14 UTC nearly.trade nf-2.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:31 UTC nearly.trade unrlzd.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:37 UTC nearly.trade unrlzd-2.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:41 UTC nearly.trade unrlzd-3.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-29 20:34 UTC nearly.trade sui.nearlytrade.near 70 High retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-30 17:01 UTC nearly.trade ni-5.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-01 09:42 UTC nearly.trade unrlzd-4.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-01 17:14 UTC nearly.trade qts.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-03 11:08 UTC nearly.trade unrlzd-6.nearlytrade.near 25 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-06 11:59 UTC nearly.trade qtc.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-12 18:24 UTC nearly.trade nfm.nearlytrade.near 60 High retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-14 02:28 UTC nearly.trade bbatman-3.nearlytrade.near 65 High retro rug history: launch only