VEIL nearly.trade

veil-5.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (1.400% per buy, 2.100% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
    Evidence: launch veil-5.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 24 % (2499 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -23.54 NEAR · insiders' net result: +33.07 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 50% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-11 17:18:59 UTC · block 219553762 · history: launch only
Transaction5j6YZAShBfN7i…HThjM
Creatorveilsurf.near explorer
Poolveil-5.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy42.51 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:50 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-10 14:18 UTC
Price now1.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.56x the peak
Outside buyers in profit43 of 134 · 32.1%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev7.0% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 19 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)1535393996
Buyers spent150.92 NEAR517.63 NEAR667.41 NEAR697.41 NEAR2,239.33 NEAR
Buyers net result+15.77 NEAR+63.68 NEAR-34.48 NEAR-38.99 NEAR-23.54 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+13.34 NEAR+29.11 NEAR+9.50 NEAR+8.38 NEAR+33.07 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.29x1.73x1.73x1.73x3.46x
Holders1527192143
Top 10 holders' share95.7%86.7%95.8%96.5%89.1%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.9% · holds 3.9% · holds 4.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 5.5% · 11 of 12 hold 9.4% · 10 of 19 hold 3.6% · 4 of 19 hold
Other early buyers 5.7% · 3 of 3 hold 10.6% · 11 of 11 hold 2.8% · 7 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)11.2% · 15 wallets20.1% · 30 wallets6.4% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)84.9%76.1%89.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)95.7%86.7%96.5%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged86.7% · 0 merged96.5% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer 5 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 11.7 min after buying · transaction +0.27 NEAR
pair bought within 20.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.7 s of axxe.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.0 s of 31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 25 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR not sold +0.36 NEAR
pair bought within 20.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.9 s of 31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of axxe.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 axxe.near 26 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 9.6 min after buying · transaction +8.58 NEAR
pair bought within 20.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3 41 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction +0.29 NEAR
pair bought within 15.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 telerman.near 89 s · transaction 70.00 NEAR 13.5 min after buying · transaction +14.71 NEAR none found
6 schwanzp.near 2.5 min · transaction 0.99 NEAR not sold -0.04 NEAR none found
7 d1de82541ee4575…a191b 3.6 min · transaction 1.80 NEAR 38.2 min after buying · transaction -0.21 NEAR
pair bought within 56.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.3 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 56.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
8 b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 4.5 min · transaction 78.49 NEAR 7.0 min after buying · transaction -3.87 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.3 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9 bf9c9b725df0744…ca524 4.5 min · transaction 27.29 NEAR 7.1 min after buying · transaction -1.42 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
10 57b75e37532eb09…faeea 4.5 min · transaction 10.22 NEAR 7.1 min after buying · transaction +0.30 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.3 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 4.5 min · transaction 10.22 NEAR 7.1 min after buying · transaction -0.0065 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.3 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
12 2e6d3355d0e0fa4…ccbb1 4.5 min · transaction 10.22 NEAR 7.0 min after buying · transaction +0.46 NEAR
pair bought within 1.9 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.9 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.4 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
13 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f 4.5 min · transaction 10.22 NEAR 7.2 min after buying · transaction -0.23 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 2.3 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.3 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
14 94feda709c301ed…63090 4.5 min · transaction 27.36 NEAR 6.9 min after buying · transaction -2.19 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches
pair bought within 2.3 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.3 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
15 imnotnice.near 4.9 min · transaction 2.00 NEAR not sold -0.21 NEAR none found
16 memexxx.near 5.6 min · transaction 0.86 NEAR 10.1 min after buying · transaction +0.03 NEAR none found
17 gxlhulc.tg 6.0 min · transaction 3.20 NEAR not sold -0.36 NEAR none found
18 suisucks.near 6.2 min · transaction 25.00 NEAR 32.4 min after buying · transaction -6.35 NEAR
pair bought within 8.5 s of rekttin.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 rekttin.near 6.3 min · transaction 150.00 NEAR 4.9 min after buying · transaction -10.34 NEAR
pair bought within 8.5 s of suisucks.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20 6324up.near 8.1 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 14.8 min after buying · transaction -8.10 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of veilsurf.near

None known.