WEAVE nearly.trade

weave.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch weave.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 35 % (727 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 7.94 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: weavethedip.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-23 13:24:22 UTC, 3.0 min after the launch: AHv3irUXKKpiy…6oY4Z.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -7.94 NEAR · insiders' net result: +3.17 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-23 13:21:19 UTC · block 221243279 · history: launch only
Transaction3ZY1Rqu7jZSEf…f8eCF
Creatorweavethedip.near explorer
Poolweave.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy25.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:50 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-23 13:52 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-23 13:52 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.78x the peak
Outside buyers in profit6 of 12 · 50%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 12 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)100%100%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch3.0 min3.0 min3.0 min3.0 min3.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1212121212
Buyers spent104.86 NEAR104.86 NEAR104.86 NEAR104.86 NEAR104.86 NEAR
Buyers net result-4.61 NEAR-7.42 NEAR-7.91 NEAR-7.94 NEAR-7.94 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)100%100%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result+3.17 NEAR+3.17 NEAR+3.17 NEAR+3.17 NEAR+3.17 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.26x1.26x1.26x1.26x1.26x
Holders42322
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 4.2% · 4 of 12 hold 1.7% · 2 of 12 hold <0.01% · 1 of 12 hold
Other early buyers — — —
All early buyers (the six rows above)4.2% · 12 wallets1.7% · 12 wallets0% · 12 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)95.8%98.3%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged100% · 2 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 12 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 wrapz-z.near independent_sniper 3 s · transaction 3.00 NEAR 119 s after buying · transaction +0.61 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
2 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 3.1 min after buying · transaction +0.07 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
3 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 96 s after buying · transaction +0.20 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
4 jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 63 s after buying · transaction +0.15 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
5 tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet 3 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 62 s after buying · transaction +0.07 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
6 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 4 s · transaction 20.36 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction +0.60 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches
pair bought within 1.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
7 beenhere.near 19 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 8.1 min after buying · transaction -0.19 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches
pair bought within 16.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.6 s of alola.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.4 s of decep.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8 nearlys2.near 23 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 2.8 min after buying · transaction -0.99 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 20.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.2 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9 decep.near 24 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 26.6 min after buying · transaction -3.22 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 31 of those launches
pair bought within 20.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.4 s of beenhere.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.2 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 32 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 4.8 min after buying · transaction -4.76 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 1.7 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
11 alola.near 34 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.3 min after buying · transaction -0.23 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 31.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
12 51206134269a0d4….near 41 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 85 s after buying · transaction -0.25 NEAR
pair bought within 7.5 s of alola.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 38.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 38.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of weavethedip.near

None known.