WKEEL nearly.trade

wkeel.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (2.100% per buy, 2.100% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
Evidence: launch wkeel.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2547 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 110.76 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 3; they sold 155.8% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: keeldev.near (dev), 78693d2535865c8409b44…fcccf (recipient).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-06 01:45:27 UTC, 33.4 min after the launch: 336G6XfmqqkyV…bBrKL.
Received tokens from the dev: 78693d2535865c8409b44…fcccf, treasury.keeldev.near.
Outside buyers' net result: -110.76 NEAR · insiders' net result: -5.73 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-06 01:12:05 UTC · block 218721952 · history: launch only
Transaction	FjWjzQJBXsdzQ…Zv76E
Creator	keeldev.near explorer
Pool	wkeel.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:50 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-06 03:37 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	0%	193.5%	193.5%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	33.4 min	33.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	30	42	49	48	48
Buyers spent	979.94 NEAR	1,227.03 NEAR	1,522.67 NEAR	1,517.03 NEAR	1,517.03 NEAR
Buyers net result	+729.26 NEAR	+568.20 NEAR	+812.09 NEAR	-110.76 NEAR	-112.86 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	2	3	3
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	0%	155.8%	155.8%
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	-0.14 NEAR	-5.73 NEAR	-5.73 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	3.47x	3.78x	3.78x	3.78x	3.78x
Holders	27	30	37	6	3
Top 10 holders' share	56.3%	59.5%	52.3%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	0.2% · 2 of 2 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	31.7% · 16 of 18 hold	30.9% · 14 of 18 hold	0% · 0 of 18 hold
Other early buyers	13.7% · 11 of 12 hold	7.1% · 5 of 12 hold	2.8% · 2 of 12 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	45.4% · 30 wallets	38.0% · 30 wallets	2.8% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	54.5%	62.0%	97.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	56.3%	59.5%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	89.7% · 3 merged	91.3% · 2 merged	100% · 0 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	ea2d15e5771412c…b6cf5	5 s · transaction	33.18 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	-3.41 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of ff77852bb8bd6f2…6d949 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 218e2a40fa2af2b…049e0 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
2	bab2c979354a1a5…f5c16	5 s · transaction	29.37 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	+8.85 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 4 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of e313afb45f8d1fd…71ed4 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of ff77852bb8bd6f2…6d949 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
3	d27b78cc2c27c4d…5cabb	5 s · transaction	28.43 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	+55.34 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	e313afb45f8d1fd…71ed4	5 s · transaction	34.36 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	+0.62 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 4 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of bab2c979354a1a5…f5c16 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of ff77852bb8bd6f2…6d949 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5	fafc3e304223363…837e9	5 s · transaction	39.02 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	+49.05 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 9792fc1b9b97e78…1edc6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	ff77852bb8bd6f2…6d949	5 s · transaction	36.33 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	+21.47 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of ea2d15e5771412c…b6cf5 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of bab2c979354a1a5…f5c16 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	71b8e89a04ecd98…cb855	5 s · transaction	42.88 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	-5.84 NEAR	none found
8	3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71	5 s · transaction	44.76 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	+26.41 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 218e2a40fa2af2b…049e0 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
9	218e2a40fa2af2b…049e0	5 s · transaction	45.00 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	+1.22 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 4 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc	5 s · transaction	33.09 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	+3.75 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of fafc3e304223363…837e9 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11	0ab507f9daa125b…93e99	5 s · transaction	41.88 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	-5.19 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of fafc3e304223363…837e9 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
12	33c9de738ea6e3c…21599	5 s · transaction	35.30 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	-5.60 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of 0abc765453a9cfd…c34fd · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	0abc765453a9cfd…c34fd	5 s · transaction	39.22 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	-3.57 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of 33c9de738ea6e3c…21599 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 9792fc1b9b97e78…1edc6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	09a4b0a1032800f…71838	5 s · transaction	44.09 NEAR	33.3 min after buying · transaction	+6.43 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of bab2c979354a1a5…f5c16 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of e313afb45f8d1fd…71ed4 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
15	9792fc1b9b97e78…1edc6	6 s · transaction	43.08 NEAR	33.2 min after buying · transaction	+14.13 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of fafc3e304223363…837e9 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
16	7cc9c3be8cc2332…f1764	27 s · transaction	9.00 NEAR	44.1 min after buying · transaction	-4.88 NEAR	none found
17	d0tz.near	53 s · transaction	29.70 NEAR	3.8 min after buying · transaction	+13.28 NEAR	none found
18	govnodav.near	85 s · transaction	38.61 NEAR	5.7 min after buying · transaction	+7.67 NEAR	none found
19	kakashkin.near	92 s · transaction	49.50 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	+18.31 NEAR	pair bought within 40.9 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	889912.near	115 s · transaction	12.00 NEAR	33.9 min after buying · transaction	-7.17 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of keeldev.near

None known.