XHAMS nearly.trade

xhams.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 30.00% of it (0.600% per buy, 0.600% per sell; creator_bps 5000, platform_bps 4000).
    Evidence: launch xhams.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 34 % (719 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 80 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: xhams.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-23 07:08:45 UTC, 178.2 min after the launch: ARULCRpWayKWE…LS5Ly.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -11.21 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.09 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 80% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-23 04:10:33 UTC · block 221187799 · history: launch only
TransactionDvyMNRhio1uZX…ZhPzF
Creatorxhams.near explorer
Poolwrap.near|xhams.nearlytrade.near|10000
Dev buy8.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 50.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:50 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-23 10:10 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-23 10:10 UTC
Price now0.97x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.80x the peak
Outside buyers in profit8 of 11 · 72.7%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 10 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%100%
Dev's first sell after launch————178.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1111111111
Buyers spent119.78 NEAR119.78 NEAR119.78 NEAR119.78 NEAR119.78 NEAR
Buyers net result+7.74 NEAR+1.03 NEAR+0.42 NEAR-0.10 NEAR-11.21 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%100%
Insiders' net result+1.58 NEAR+1.04 NEAR+0.98 NEAR+0.93 NEAR-0.09 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.21x1.21x1.21x1.21x1.21x
Holders97640
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.8% · holds 0.8% · holds 0.8% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 5.4% · 7 of 10 hold 2.6% · 5 of 10 hold 2.4% · 2 of 10 hold
Other early buyers 4.4% · 1 of 1 hold 4.4% · 1 of 1 hold 4.4% · 1 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)9.7% · 11 wallets7% · 11 wallets6.7% · 11 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)89.5%92.2%92.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged100% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 11 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 15.1 min after buying · transaction +0.09 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
2 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 bot_developer 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 35.0 min after buying · transaction +0.08 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3 bright-panda-28….near bot_wallet 3 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 63 s after buying · transaction +0.11 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 110 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 90 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 85 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 125 of 223 launches (not put in a group)
4 tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet 3 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 61 s after buying · transaction +0.03 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
5 wrapz-z.near independent_sniper 3 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 11.1 min after buying · transaction +0.17 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
6 jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet 4 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction +0.15 NEAR
pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
7 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 4 s · transaction 20.28 NEAR not sold +1.43 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches
pair bought within 1.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8 5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc 12 s · transaction 6.00 NEAR not sold +0.27 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 69 of those launches
pair bought within 9.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.8 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 46 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9 alola.near 21 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.2 min after buying · transaction +0.02 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 18.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 24 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 6.2 min after buying · transaction +0.92 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 2.9 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11 telerman.near 86 s · transaction 55.00 NEAR not sold -3.37 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of xhams.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-23 04:26 UTC justhoot v2 xhams.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 5 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-25 12:17 UTC nearly.trade hamsradar.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro rug history: launch only