ZEPITA nearly.trade

zepita.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 80 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+50
2 of the 2 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 2 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 60%.
Evidence: launch ratty.nearlytrade.near, launch yaca.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch zepita.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 58.09 NEAR 11 min before the launch from thedever.near, whose earlier launch ratty.nearlytrade.near (made by yacabot.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 38h4UdvQZRq1Lj6Kg…wKgvV, launch ratty.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 3 % (330 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 28.83 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 108.3% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: zepitatrade.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 13:31:39 UTC, 2.5 min after the launch: 6rm5Am8yfFFru…dYo4J.
Outside buyers' net result: -28.83 NEAR · insiders' net result: +6.04 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 13:29:09 UTC · block 217638134 · history: launch only
Transaction	5tyfGs1mypXeK…BRPfX
Creator	zepitatrade.near explorer
Pool	wrap.near\|zepita.nearlytrade.near\|10000
Dev buy	30.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:50 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-29 09:04 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	108.3%	111%
Dev's first sell after launch	2.5 min	2.5 min	2.5 min	2.5 min	2.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	21	42	44	45	45
Buyers spent	311.77 NEAR	674.34 NEAR	699.12 NEAR	719.12 NEAR	719.12 NEAR
Buyers net result	+36.06 NEAR	+132.30 NEAR	-20.36 NEAR	-28.83 NEAR	-40.41 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	108.3%	111%
Insiders' net result	+3.05 NEAR	+3.05 NEAR	+3.05 NEAR	+6.05 NEAR	+6.83 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.41x	1.89x	1.89x	1.89x	1.89x
Holders	18	32	17	17	5
Top 10 holders' share	94.5%	85.6%	96.3%	97.4%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	9.9% · 12 of 15 hold	5.2% · 8 of 17 hold	1.2% · 1 of 17 hold
Other early buyers	8.3% · 5 of 6 hold	12.4% · 11 of 13 hold	0.9% · 5 of 13 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	18.3% · 21 wallets	17.6% · 30 wallets	2.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	81.7%	82.4%	97.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	94.5%	85.6%	97.4%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	97.9% · 2 merged	87.5% · 2 merged	97.4% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	x0xdead.near	25 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.51 NEAR	pair bought within 15.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 88 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.2 s of kimpet77.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 242 of 729 launches (not put in a group)
2	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	40 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	31.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.06 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 15.2 s of x0xdead.near · 88 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.0 s of kimpet77.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.7 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	5008cb4b7bd395e…37b4f	63 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	8.5 min after buying · transaction	+3.18 NEAR	pair bought within 24.4 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	kimpet77.near	82 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	118 s after buying · transaction	+1.46 NEAR	pair bought within 4.7 s of sessssssssss.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.2 s of x0xdead.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5	wei8888.near	86 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	80 s after buying · transaction	+1.32 NEAR	none found
6	sessssssssss.near	87 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	89 s after buying · transaction	-0.13 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 4.7 s of kimpet77.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.4 s of aceng03.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7	bigvinegar9113.near	98 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	83 s after buying · transaction	-1.89 NEAR	pair bought within 11.1 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of as_crypto.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.4 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	as_crypto.near	98 s · transaction	0.70 NEAR	14.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.21 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of bigvinegar9113.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	0xfrex.near	2.0 min · transaction	11.00 NEAR	7.1 min after buying · transaction	+4.34 NEAR	pair bought within 25.7 s of aceng03.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.5 s of kimpet77.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	c6e193ddf442ad2…6857c	2.2 min · transaction	19.90 NEAR	65 s after buying · transaction	-3.16 NEAR	none found
11	aceng03.near	2.4 min · transaction	9.00 NEAR	45 s after buying · transaction	-0.75 NEAR	pair bought within 59.4 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.7 s of 0xfrex.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.6 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
12	f828fcbbea7ad2a…ac146	2.7 min · transaction	0.50 NEAR	not sold	+0.0044 NEAR	none found
13	3ba96812ab58128…9790a	3.2 min · transaction	1.99 NEAR	not sold	+0.16 NEAR	none found
14	cryptopoorency.near	3.3 min · transaction	4.98 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	+2.62 NEAR	pair bought within 49.4 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	supremegay.near	3.4 min · transaction	59.70 NEAR	6.5 min after buying · transaction	+17.56 NEAR	pair bought within 54.6 s of aceng03.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	d3843828b4a438f…cbb90	3.5 min · transaction	99.50 NEAR	11.5 min after buying · transaction	+33.09 NEAR	none found
17	d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a	4.0 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	11.2 min after buying · transaction	+3.49 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches pair bought within 14.8 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.4 s of teend.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be	4.2 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	4.2 min after buying · transaction	+1.91 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 14.8 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.6 s of teend.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
19	teend.near	4.6 min · transaction	20.50 NEAR	13.0 min after buying · transaction	-2.91 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches pair bought within 22.6 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.4 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.9 s of e00953313c9b49e…b1762 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	deepvest2222.near	4.8 min · transaction	0.99 NEAR	not sold	-0.20 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of zepitatrade.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-28 17:27 UTC	nearly.trade	zepita-2.nearlytrade.near	80 High retro	rug	history: launch only