ALCHEMIST nearly.trade

alchemist.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 50 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

  • +30
    1 of the 1 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (1 by the creator); smoothed rug share 47%.
  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 42.00% of it (0.420% per buy, 0.420% per sell; creator_bps 7000, platform_bps 4000).

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 40 % (796 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. no outside buyers; no outside buyers.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: xterror.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-28 08:37:46 UTC, 5.5 min after the launch: 6XGEG7v4T8KCq…SaBob.
  • Outside buyers' net result: +0.00 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.35 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 98% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-28 08:32:14 UTC · block 221951311 · history: launch only
Transaction9b24CDdYeiDEX…vyqZd
Creatorxterror.near explorer
Poolalchemist.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy9.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 70.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-28 08:37 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-28 08:37 UTC
Price nowno outside buyer yet · 0.97x the peak
Outside buyers in profit0 of 0
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group—
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%100%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch—5.5 min5.5 min5.5 min5.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)00000
Buyers spent0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR
Buyers net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%100%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result-0.09 NEAR-0.35 NEAR-0.35 NEAR-0.35 NEAR-0.35 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer—————
Holders10000
Top 10 holders' share100%————

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.8% · holds 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group — — —
Other early buyers — — —
All early buyers (the six rows above)0% · 0 wallets0% · 0 wallets0% · 0 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.2%100%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%——
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged——
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Other launches of xterror.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-23 13:39 UTC nearly.trade xtr.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-28 08:28 UTC nearly.trade richnear.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-28 08:39 UTC nearly.trade chickloud.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-28 08:57 UTC nearly.trade oraora.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only