XTR nearly.trade

xtr.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 60.00% of it (1.200% per buy, 1.200% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 4000).
    Evidence: launch xtr.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 35 % (729 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 5.25 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: xterror.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-23 13:46:34 UTC, 7.0 min after the launch: HB4b759y8qehL…FEeic.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -5.25 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.48 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-23 13:39:37 UTC · block 221245193 · history: launch only
TransactionDpWWpM3dw3Zsm…HXNHa
Creatorxterror.near explorer
Poolwrap.near|xtr.nearlytrade.near|10000
Dev buy9.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:50 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-23 15:25 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%100%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch—7.0 min7.0 min7.0 min7.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1111111111
Buyers spent93.46 NEAR93.46 NEAR93.46 NEAR93.46 NEAR93.46 NEAR
Buyers net result-5.11 NEAR-5.22 NEAR-5.22 NEAR-5.25 NEAR-5.29 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%100%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result-0.06 NEAR-0.48 NEAR-0.48 NEAR-0.48 NEAR-0.48 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.20x1.20x1.20x1.20x1.20x
Holders42210
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 0.3% · 3 of 11 hold 0.2% · 2 of 11 hold 0.2% · 1 of 11 hold
Other early buyers — — —
All early buyers (the six rows above)0.3% · 11 wallets0.2% · 11 wallets0.2% · 11 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.7%99.8%99.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged100% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 11 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 63 s after buying · transaction +0.13 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
2 wrapz-z.near independent_sniper 3 s · transaction 3.00 NEAR 64 s after buying · transaction +0.32 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
3 tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet 3 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 61 s after buying · transaction +0.05 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
4 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 5.0 min after buying · transaction -0.06 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
5 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 3.1 min after buying · transaction -0.03 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
6 nearlys2.near 23 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 2.8 min after buying · transaction -1.26 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 20.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.1 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
7 56c9a6ef438223b….near 32 s · transaction 24.00 NEAR 43 s after buying · transaction -0.20 NEAR
pair bought within 28.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.8 s of wrapz-z.near · 61 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
8 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 34 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 62 s after buying · transaction -2.98 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 10.1 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9 beenhere.near 38 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR not sold -0.37 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches
pair bought within 34.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.9 s of alola.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10 alola.near 44 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.3 min after buying · transaction -0.20 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 40.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 40.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 40.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
11 b7fea875a454f51…24509 44 s · transaction 9.96 NEAR 26 s after buying · transaction -0.66 NEAR
pair bought within 0.5 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of xterror.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-28 08:28 UTC nearly.trade richnear.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-28 08:32 UTC nearly.trade alchemist.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-28 08:39 UTC nearly.trade chickloud.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-28 08:57 UTC nearly.trade oraora.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only