The largest funder's (f1bb20659f00960c4a54077f00ad4316b01eddc13d2050f6ebc190bb64492e6a) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1797 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 20.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 19.8 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 19.8% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +16.57 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.05 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 64% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-01 17:12:18 UTC · block 218085622 · history: launch only
buy 2.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 18:21 UTC
16out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
34
88 of 260 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
30
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-13 16:21 UTC
Price now
3.36x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.30x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
88 of 260 · 33.8%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
3.0% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 5 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
—
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
19.8%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
8.8 min
8.8 min
8.8 min
8.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
15
42
75
133
240
Buyers spent
1.73 NEAR
7.00 NEAR
13.39 NEAR
20.51 NEAR
42.05 NEAR
Buyers net result
+0.34 NEAR
+6.23 NEAR
+14.29 NEAR
+26.28 NEAR
+16.57 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
—
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
19.8%
Insiders' net result
0.00 NEAR
+0.38 NEAR
+0.85 NEAR
+1.44 NEAR
+1.05 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.50x
3.89x
7.15x
9.66x
11.20x
Holders
15
42
62
111
146
Top 10 holders' share
85.7%
50.5%
47.8%
42.1%
39.6%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0% · holds nothing
2.9% · holds
2.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
2.8% · 5 of 5 hold
0% · 0 of 5 hold
Other early buyers
19.2% · 15 of 15 hold
30.0% · 23 of 25 hold
26.3% · 18 of 25 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
19.2% · 15 wallets
32.8% · 30 wallets
26.3% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
80.8%
64.3%
70.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
85.7%
50.5%
42.1%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
85.7% · 0 merged
52.6% · 1 merged
42.1% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.