BONEAR nearly.trade

bonear.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 60 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+30
17 of the 32 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 17 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 51%.
Evidence: launch rna.nearlytrade.near, launch kitties-2.nearlyt….near, launch leenear.nearlytrade.near, launch nearbot-2.nearlyt….near, launch nearti.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch bonear.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 1.00 NEAR 3 min before the launch from 4ea681c0ed38f02cd0f8648e13065164698c9341068cdc4b4f44faefebe2dfd3, whose earlier launch rna.nearlytrade.near (made by 2884ffad774751be2a411986fd49678d09c5464520f72166255b4b5ffa3ebf6c, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 4r5Ywa7yswVG6n4V8…kptZA, launch rna.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1606 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Undefined. The insiders sold tokens into the pool, but their sold share does not exist for this launch (they acquired nothing through it), so we cannot say how much of their holding they sold: the outside buyers lost money, but "rug" or "no rug" is not stated. It is not counted in any rate.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: cbf260d4375f5faf1eee3…0a41b (dev).
Outside buyers' net result: -4.89 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.41 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 84% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-01 03:02:57 UTC · block 218003692 · history: launch only
Transaction	CLqZaGDpEJCub…F7wDJ
Creator	cbf260d4375f5faf1eee3d76541383364147faa7417656ae702b3233a5a0a41b explorer
Pool	bonear.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-01 18:40 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	16.1 min	16.1 min	16.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	12	13	13	13	13
Buyers spent	84.29 NEAR	86.27 NEAR	86.27 NEAR	86.27 NEAR	86.27 NEAR
Buyers net result	-3.05 NEAR	-3.45 NEAR	-3.90 NEAR	-4.12 NEAR	-4.89 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+0.33 NEAR	+0.33 NEAR	+0.41 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.17x	1.17x	1.17x	1.17x	1.17x
Holders	7	9	8	7	4
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	2.7% · 7 of 12 hold	2.7% · 6 of 12 hold	1.8% · 4 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	—	0.2% · 1 of 1 hold	0.2% · 1 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	2.7% · 12 wallets	2.8% · 13 wallets	1.9% · 13 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	97.3%	97.2%	98.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 13 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54	10 s · transaction	0.01 NEAR	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 45 of those launches pair bought within 0.5 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 51 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.7 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
2	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	10 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.20 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches pair bought within 0.5 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.2 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
3	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	11 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 · 51 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.7 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
4	33319fac01abb0a…182c0	36 s · transaction	10.76 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.09 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
5	3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735	36 s · transaction	10.76 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.26 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.4 s of alola.near · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
6	03712631d52c0ad…1b110	36 s · transaction	10.76 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.59 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.4 s of alola.near · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	36 s · transaction	10.76 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.12 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.4 s of alola.near · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	c28ebb8af189396…a8c13	36 s · transaction	10.76 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.02 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	51 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.14 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 14.4 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.4 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.4 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	lambadaa.near	73 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	15.4 min after buying · transaction	-1.44 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 22.5 s of alola.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11	badriansyahirwa….near	116 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.07 NEAR	pair bought within 16.8 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.5 s of lambadaa.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	b8185e452876272…dff87	2.2 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.14 NEAR	pair bought within 59.3 s of lambadaa.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.8 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	d71a9b6b2076a7f…37fa3	6.2 min · transaction	1.98 NEAR	not sold	-0.11 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of cbf260d4375f5faf1eee3…0a41b

None known.