In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+30
16 of the 31 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 16 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 50%.
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Received 1.00 NEAR 2 min before the launch from 8027ad9f55a889e901c5a20be3a86a57ad7f379f8401bc80d8acd681679fb5a9, whose earlier launch kitties-2.nearlytrade.near (made by f325528f64d3276614a2aad9ca94dc747a143aeb2651f7cf1ef8311017ae3652, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-30 19:09:48 UTC, 20.5 min after the launch: 3rpoEWGFvWnoF…MGVbE.
Outside buyers' net result: -4.95 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.49 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-30 18:49:17 UTC · block 217953368 · history: launch only
buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC
Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.
Why there is no number
This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-09-30 19:09 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
381.3%
381.3%
381.3%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
20.5 min
20.5 min
20.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
8
8
8
8
8
Buyers spent
90.16 NEAR
90.16 NEAR
90.16 NEAR
90.16 NEAR
90.16 NEAR
Buyers net result
-3.18 NEAR
-4.95 NEAR
-4.95 NEAR
-4.95 NEAR
-4.95 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
381.3%
381.3%
381.3%
Insiders' net result
-0.0011 NEAR
-0.01 NEAR
+0.49 NEAR
+0.49 NEAR
+0.49 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.17x
1.17x
1.17x
1.17x
1.17x
Holders
4
1
2
2
2
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.0% · holds
0.0% · holds
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
0.0% · 1 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.9% · 1 of 6 hold
0% · 0 of 6 hold
0% · 0 of 6 hold
Other early buyers
2.1% · 1 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
3.0% · 8 wallets
0% · 8 wallets
0% · 8 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
96.9%
100.0%
100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 8 wallets that bought, and what links them
dev side received 1.83 NEAR from 7afee2994c20ebb…29780 (a member of the dev's linked group), 238.4 min before its first buy · transaction
What the links mean
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.