In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+30
16 of the 31 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 16 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 50%.
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Received 3.15 NEAR 9 min before the launch from 8027ad9f55a889e901c5a20be3a86a57ad7f379f8401bc80d8acd681679fb5a9, whose earlier launch kitties-2.nearlytrade.near (made by f325528f64d3276614a2aad9ca94dc747a143aeb2651f7cf1ef8311017ae3652, linked to him) ended as a rug; 3 such funders in all.
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-30 22:42:53 UTC, 206.2 min after the launch: FtM8SohhaujCT…PG4Cf.
Outside buyers' net result: -1.20 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.01 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 96% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-30 19:16:42 UTC · block 217956158 · history: launch only
buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-02 04:36 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-02 04:36 UTC
Price now
0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.96x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
0 of 3 · 0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
<0.01% · 1 of 2 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
103.2%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
206.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
3
3
3
3
3
Buyers spent
20.01 NEAR
20.01 NEAR
20.01 NEAR
20.01 NEAR
20.01 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.67 NEAR
-0.67 NEAR
-0.67 NEAR
-0.67 NEAR
-1.20 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
103.2%
Insiders' net result
-0.02 NEAR
-0.02 NEAR
-0.02 NEAR
-0.02 NEAR
-0.01 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.01x
1.01x
1.01x
1.01x
1.01x
Holders
3
3
3
3
1
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.1% · holds
0.1% · holds
0.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
<0.01% · 1 of 2 hold
<0.01% · 1 of 2 hold
<0.01% · 1 of 2 hold
Other early buyers
1.4% · 1 of 1 hold
1.4% · 1 of 1 hold
1.4% · 1 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
1.4% · 3 wallets
1.4% · 3 wallets
1.4% · 3 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
98.5%
98.5%
98.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 3 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.