BONK nearly.trade

bonk.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch bonk.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 16 % (1164 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 79 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 440.1% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: btconnear.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-30 03:38:08 UTC, 650.1 min after the launch: Ghm8VcNe3SiXz…jXwap.
Outside buyers' net result: -4.35 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.64 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 79% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 16:48:01 UTC · block 217802895 · history: launch only
Transaction	5tVmpBLf1mxCA…wd8Gk
Creator	btconnear.near explorer
Pool	bonk.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-30 03:38 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	440.1%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	650.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	13	13	13	13	13
Buyers spent	118.32 NEAR	118.32 NEAR	118.32 NEAR	118.32 NEAR	118.32 NEAR
Buyers net result	-4.06 NEAR	-4.31 NEAR	-4.34 NEAR	-4.35 NEAR	-4.35 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	440.1%
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+0.64 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.23x	1.23x	1.23x	1.23x	1.23x
Holders	5	4	5	5	4
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.7% · 3 of 12 hold	0.2% · 2 of 12 hold	0% · 0 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	0.1% · 1 of 1 hold	0.1% · 1 of 1 hold	0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0.8% · 13 wallets	0.3% · 13 wallets	0.1% · 13 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	99.2%	99.7%	99.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 13 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	darknes.near	41 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	+1.69 NEAR	pair bought within 6.5 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.0 s of barrey.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
2	1122233413123.near	42 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+2.38 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of darknes.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.0 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.1 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
3	3347dd8076331ad…52407	48 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.08 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 49.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.5 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.5 s of darknes.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	barrey.near	68 s · transaction	4.96 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.16 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 38.0 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.3 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
5	5b9d43abb215de7…4c173	69 s · transaction	24.80 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	-2.07 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches pair bought within 37.4 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.0 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
6	920b3a669f9f318…ce387	86 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	85 s after buying · transaction	-0.27 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches pair bought within 27.0 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.3 s of barrey.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.3 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	hatersgonnahate.near	88 s · transaction	12.87 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-1.96 NEAR	pair bought within 18.8 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	e8a162641a55288…58210	97 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	-1.07 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 9.6 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.0 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	106 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.19 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 9.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.0 s of barrey.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.3 s of sessssssssss.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10	6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d	108 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	64 s after buying · transaction	-1.76 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 1.6 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.7 s of sessssssssss.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.0 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11	sessssssssss.near	113 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	57 s after buying · transaction	-0.55 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 7.3 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.0 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
12	7july.near	2.1 min · transaction	1.98 NEAR	23.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.43 NEAR	pair bought within 55.6 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	rce09ee77bfaefe….near	4.5 min · transaction	0.70 NEAR	not sold	-0.03 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of btconnear.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-28 09:42 UTC	nearly.trade	radar-2.nearlytrade.near	25 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:03 UTC	nearly.trade	wtf.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:10 UTC	nearly.trade	404.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:27 UTC	nearly.trade	pump.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:38 UTC	nearly.trade	bro.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:43 UTC	nearly.trade	rhea-3.nearlytrade.near	25 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-29 22:26 UTC	nearly.trade	nrr-10.nearlytrade.near	25 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only