RADAR nearly.trade

radar-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 30.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3000).
Evidence: launch radar-2.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'radar' was already used 19.0 h earlier by another creator (radar.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch radar.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (232 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -17.44 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.01 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 55% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 09:42:13 UTC · block 217615196 · history: launch only
Transaction	3jX7ufFGSiPzF…GXcvB
Creator	btconnear.near explorer
Pool	radar-2.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.10 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 30.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-28 17:54 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	8	18	19	21	23
Buyers spent	211.95 NEAR	404.34 NEAR	431.34 NEAR	527.58 NEAR	529.88 NEAR
Buyers net result	+34.93 NEAR	-12.65 NEAR	-12.50 NEAR	-17.31 NEAR	-17.44 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+0.04 NEAR	+0.0008 NEAR	+0.0091 NEAR	-0.0019 NEAR	-0.0058 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.42x	1.84x	1.84x	1.84x	1.84x
Holders	10	4	5	8	8
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	<0.01% · holds	<0.01% · holds	0.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	16.8% · 7 of 7 hold	0.1% · 1 of 12 hold	0.1% · 2 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	0.1% · 1 of 1 hold	<0.01% · 1 of 6 hold	0.0% · 2 of 9 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	16.9% · 8 wallets	0.1% · 18 wallets	0.1% · 21 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	83.1%	99.9%	99.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	24 s · transaction	0.70 NEAR	13.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.01 NEAR	none found
2	d0tz.near	2.4 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	12.1 min after buying · transaction	-6.01 NEAR	pair bought within 45.0 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.3 s of banditossss.tg · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.2 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	banditossss.tg	2.9 min · transaction	40.00 NEAR	8.7 min after buying · transaction	+1.32 NEAR	pair bought within 28.3 s of d0tz.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	supremegay.near	3.0 min · transaction	49.75 NEAR	8.1 min after buying · transaction	+9.15 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 9.8 s of alola.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.2 s of d0tz.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
5	alola.near	3.1 min · transaction	1.50 NEAR	not sold	-0.27 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 9.8 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.0 s of d0tz.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.5 s of farcastmage.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6	farcastmage.near	4.1 min · transaction	60.00 NEAR	7.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.63 NEAR	pair bought within 57.0 s of pajet.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.5 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	kimpet77.near	4.4 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	63 s after buying · transaction	+1.25 NEAR	pair bought within 47.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.6 s of 1122233413123.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	1122233413123.near	4.6 min · transaction	60.00 NEAR	4.2 min after buying · transaction	+6.29 NEAR	pair bought within 7.6 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	pajet.near	5.0 min · transaction	40.00 NEAR	5.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.18 NEAR	pair bought within 57.0 s of farcastmage.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	e8a162641a55288…58210	5.2 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	4.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 47.6 s of kimpet77.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.9 s of acd876fa672624e…fa933 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.0 s of 1122233413123.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	chaofeng.near	5.4 min · transaction	25.00 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	-6.50 NEAR	none found
12	acd876fa672624e…fa933	5.9 min · transaction	39.80 NEAR	3.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.15 NEAR	pair bought within 38.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	snuffdog.near	6.2 min · transaction	1.99 NEAR	4.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.28 NEAR	pair bought within 12.0 s of lorenzo18.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	lorenzo18.near	6.5 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.14 NEAR	pair bought within 12.0 s of snuffdog.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	c9b1acddb8dd53f…0d915	7.5 min · transaction	0.50 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.19 NEAR	none found
16	hardroom2708.near	7.8 min · transaction	9.95 NEAR	116 s after buying · transaction	-1.11 NEAR	none found
17	544dfa1031c3374…7c75d	7.8 min · transaction	80.00 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	-22.95 NEAR	none found
18	wandakencana.tg	8.8 min · transaction	0.15 NEAR	not sold	-0.07 NEAR	none found
19	longbank4854.near	29.6 min · transaction	32.00 NEAR	8.4 min after buying · transaction	+3.94 NEAR	none found
20	9862883018a8439…e685a	33.4 min · transaction	0.25 NEAR	not sold	-0.03 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of btconnear.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-29 16:48 UTC	nearly.trade	bonk.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:03 UTC	nearly.trade	wtf.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:10 UTC	nearly.trade	404.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:27 UTC	nearly.trade	pump.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:38 UTC	nearly.trade	bro.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-29 17:43 UTC	nearly.trade	rhea-3.nearlytrade.near	25 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-29 22:26 UTC	nearly.trade	nrr-10.nearlytrade.near	25 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only