BRS nearly.trade

brs.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 64.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 6400).
    Evidence: launch brs.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (airdrop.rhealab.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2590 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 29 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 341.2% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: skyto.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-06 20:57:11 UTC, 205.0 min after the launch: xtfdWcGjwGRBY…scgB8.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -67.41 NEAR · insiders' net result: +6.39 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 29% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-06 17:32:14 UTC · block 218821976 · history: launch only
TransactionDMDXfTurwRRht…RVnfq
Creatorskyto.near explorer
Poolbrs.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy2.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 64.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-16 23:04 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-16 23:04 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.29x the peak
Outside buyers in profit19 of 93 · 20.4%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 20 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%341.2%
Dev's first sell after launch————205.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)3475828893
Buyers spent787.61 NEAR1,701.30 NEAR2,021.59 NEAR2,131.06 NEAR2,202.33 NEAR
Buyers net result+383.36 NEAR+282.58 NEAR+168.82 NEAR+7.98 NEAR-67.41 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%341.2%
Insiders' net result+3.24 NEAR+2.94 NEAR+2.36 NEAR+1.25 NEAR+6.39 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer2.75x3.38x3.38x3.38x3.38x
Holders3255504625
Top 10 holders' share81.1%71.0%68.3%73.7%95.9%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.2% · holds 0.2% · holds 0.2% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 20.1% · 20 of 20 hold 8.9% · 10 of 20 hold 7.2% · 8 of 20 hold
Other early buyers 16.0% · 10 of 10 hold 5.6% · 7 of 10 hold 1.1% · 3 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)36.0% · 30 wallets14.5% · 30 wallets8.3% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)63.8%85.3%91.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)81.1%71.0%73.7%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder84.3% · 1 merged71.0% · 0 merged73.7% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 ethereal_tentac….near 27 s · transaction 4.95 NEAR 7.2 min after buying · transaction +5.33 NEAR
pair bought within 59.5 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 49.7 s of rekttin.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
2 4fff4175970134e…82fa3 29 s · transaction 40.00 NEAR not sold +17.84 NEAR
pair bought within 57.7 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.7 s of ericakang.user.….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 39.3 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 ericakang.user.….near 30 s · transaction 42.57 NEAR not sold +4.65 NEAR
pair bought within 1.7 s of 4fff4175970134e…82fa3 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 polar_reindeer6….near 44 s · transaction 11.38 NEAR 9.1 min after buying · transaction +6.11 NEAR none found
5 batwomanear.near 50 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 7.5 min after buying · transaction +68.24 NEAR none found
6 badriansyahirwa….near 68 s · transaction 0.99 NEAR 3.7 min after buying · transaction +0.55 NEAR
pair bought within 18.4 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.7 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.7 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7 heyyyyyyy.user.….near 69 s · transaction 34.65 NEAR 14.6 min after buying · transaction +14.56 NEAR
pair bought within 17.7 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
8 rekttin.near 77 s · transaction 110.00 NEAR 7.2 min after buying · transaction +23.36 NEAR
pair bought within 9.8 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.1 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.6 s of truezest4223.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
9 damn.user.intear.near 82 s · transaction 29.70 NEAR 11.6 min after buying · transaction +17.29 NEAR none found
10 alola.near 86 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 5.3 min after buying · transaction +0.76 NEAR
pair bought within 18.4 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.3 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.3 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 12 more pairs · all pairs
11 frosty_circuit2….near 88 s · transaction 4.95 NEAR 3.3 min after buying · transaction +0.94 NEAR none found
12 kuill.near 93 s · transaction 67.00 NEAR 7.2 min after buying · transaction +30.18 NEAR
pair bought within 6.6 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f 98 s · transaction 43.24 NEAR 62 s after buying · transaction -0.93 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.7 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
14 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 98 s · transaction 43.24 NEAR 62 s after buying · transaction -1.47 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.7 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
15 b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea 98 s · transaction 51.10 NEAR 62 s after buying · transaction -1.03 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
16 b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 98 s · transaction 43.24 NEAR 62 s after buying · transaction -0.34 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.7 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
17 bf9c9b725df0744…ca524 98 s · transaction 43.24 NEAR 63 s after buying · transaction -2.52 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches
pair bought within 0.5 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
18 57b75e37532eb09…faeea 99 s · transaction 43.24 NEAR 61 s after buying · transaction -1.81 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.7 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.7 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
19 94feda709c301ed…63090 99 s · transaction 43.24 NEAR 61 s after buying · transaction -1.70 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.7 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.7 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
20 truezest4223.near 113 s · transaction 170.00 NEAR 57 s after buying · transaction +3.53 NEAR
pair bought within 26.8 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.6 s of rekttin.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of skyto.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-15 16:07 UTC nearly.trade prl.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only