PRL nearly.trade

prl.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).

The largest funder's (airdrop.rhealab.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 20 % (987 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 32 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: skyto.near (dev).
  • Received tokens from the dev: root.near.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -190.99 NEAR · insiders' net result: +4.98 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 32% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-15 16:07:19 UTC · block 220099725 · history: launch only
TransactionAkNwrXHK5wgAQ…QrCV4
Creatorskyto.near explorer
Poolprl.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-05 22:45 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-05 22:45 UTC
Price now1.48x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.31x the peak
Outside buyers in profit63 of 210 · 30%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev0.5% · 3 of 3 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group7.1% · 1 of 11 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch————1355.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)336896120151
Buyers spent994.19 NEAR1,965.29 NEAR3,321.27 NEAR4,116.46 NEAR5,554.03 NEAR
Buyers net result+835.10 NEAR+809.27 NEAR+1,169.95 NEAR+712.35 NEAR-190.99 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11112
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR+4.98 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer3.65x3.89x4.48x4.70x4.70x
Holders3358648078
Top 10 holders' share73.7%53.8%53.5%53.8%90.4%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 28.0% · 11 of 11 hold 17.4% · 10 of 11 hold 12.6% · 7 of 11 hold
Other early buyers 17.1% · 19 of 19 hold 12.5% · 14 of 19 hold 4.1% · 7 of 19 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)45.1% · 30 wallets29.9% · 30 wallets16.7% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)54.9%70.1%83.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)73.7%53.8%53.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder73.7% · 0 merged53.8% · 0 merged53.8% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 5 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 5.4 min after buying · transaction +1.59 NEAR
2 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 11 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 30.4 min after buying · transaction +14.03 NEAR
3 62d1b9c88f35252…f6973 30 s · transaction 116.42 NEAR not sold +258.01 NEAR
4 js1112s.near 33 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR not sold +18.67 NEAR
5 quick-rider-483….near 38 s · transaction 2.17 NEAR not sold +3.98 NEAR
6 25510828e36a7d4…e374e 53 s · transaction 15.55 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +16.44 NEAR
7 easyharbor1249.near 60 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 2.0 min after buying · transaction +41.40 NEAR
8 testonnear.near 75 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 2.3 min after buying · transaction +7.04 NEAR
9 nuuwally.near 77 s · transaction 16.83 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction +21.02 NEAR
10 alola.near 91 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 114 s after buying · transaction +0.98 NEAR
11 ilikenear.near 97 s · transaction 39.00 NEAR 9.8 min after buying · transaction +52.72 NEAR
12 diamondcash.near 103 s · transaction 25.00 NEAR not sold +33.20 NEAR
13 tiadoyinnn.near 115 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 5.3 min after buying · transaction +8.98 NEAR
14 7b0y.near 116 s · transaction 260.00 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction +51.98 NEAR
15 km686.tg 117 s · transaction 45.00 NEAR 21.2 min after buying · transaction +25.25 NEAR
16 toamillion.near 2.1 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction +40.05 NEAR
17 shikigima.near 2.3 min · transaction 166.00 NEAR 13.9 min after buying · transaction -1.64 NEAR
18 buyitall.near 2.6 min · transaction 325.00 NEAR 7.1 min after buying · transaction +42.10 NEAR
19 bed97f5d7ab4e50…d7a44 2.8 min · transaction 45.00 NEAR 29.4 min after buying · transaction +19.84 NEAR
20 11407a4ac5c7a66…6f62f 2.8 min · transaction 0.97 NEAR not sold +0.40 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of skyto.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-06 17:32 UTC nearly.trade brs.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only