BWS nearly.trade

bws.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch bws.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 11 % (934 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Undefined. The insiders sold tokens into the pool, but their sold share does not exist for this launch (they acquired nothing through it), so we cannot say how much of their holding they sold: the outside buyers lost money, but "rug" or "no rug" is not stated. It is not counted in any rate.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: teend.near (dev).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -19.36 NEAR · insiders' net result: +23.87 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 63% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 12:25:26 UTC · block 217776747 · history: launch only
Transaction9B3wW7i6PqMDT…qcK8o
Creatorlaunchbot.nearlytrade.near explorer
Owner (paid the launch bot)teend.near
evidence: EyTKfCEEMaBcQgDa9tmpNATKUGdz6V4tUNXdb7hsFp5j
Poolbws.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy20.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-01 14:54 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-01 14:54 UTC
Price now0.93x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.63x the peak
Outside buyers in profit6 of 31 · 19.4%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 19 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch—7.7 min7.7 min7.7 min7.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2231313131
Buyers spent289.31 NEAR416.65 NEAR416.65 NEAR416.65 NEAR416.65 NEAR
Buyers net result+28.61 NEAR-18.59 NEAR-18.95 NEAR-19.34 NEAR-19.36 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR+23.87 NEAR+23.87 NEAR+23.87 NEAR+23.87 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.41x1.49x1.49x1.49x1.49x
Holders219554
Top 10 holders' share85.4%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 14.8% · 16 of 19 hold 0.1% · 1 of 19 hold 0% · 0 of 19 hold
Other early buyers 0.2% · 3 of 3 hold 0.9% · 6 of 11 hold 0.2% · 2 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)15.0% · 22 wallets0.9% · 30 wallets0.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)85.0%99.0%99.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)85.4%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder99.2% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 peekaby.near 53 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR 6.9 min after buying · transaction +1.71 NEAR
pair bought within 5.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 40.2 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.6 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
2 sweetibis8395.near 54 s · transaction 49.50 NEAR 6.5 min after buying · transaction +8.12 NEAR
pair bought within 24.0 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 e8a162641a55288…58210 59 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 6.6 min after buying · transaction +0.30 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 32.8 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.1 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
4 3347dd8076331ad…52407 60 s · transaction 0.10 NEAR 6.8 min after buying · transaction -0.0021 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 1.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.7 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
5 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 73 s · transaction 24.80 NEAR 7.2 min after buying · transaction +0.05 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches
pair bought within 18.7 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.3 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
6 e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 78 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 77 s after buying · transaction +0.03 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 36.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.7 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.3 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7 c964f0a446c4f56…8802e 82 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 7.0 min after buying · transaction -1.04 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches
pair bought within 7.3 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.0 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.7 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8 gakusahliat.near 83 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 11.4 min after buying · transaction -0.27 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches
pair bought within 10.2 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.3 s of c964f0a446c4f56…8802e · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.1 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
9 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d 89 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR 64 s after buying · transaction -0.30 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 2.4 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.3 s of c964f0a446c4f56…8802e · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.3 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
10 alola.near 92 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.3 min after buying · transaction -0.27 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 32.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.9 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
11 b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 93 s · transaction 16.23 NEAR 56 s after buying · transaction -1.76 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
12 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 93 s · transaction 16.23 NEAR 68 s after buying · transaction -0.73 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
13 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 93 s · transaction 16.23 NEAR 56 s after buying · transaction +0.26 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
14 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 93 s · transaction 16.23 NEAR 56 s after buying · transaction -0.38 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
15 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 93 s · transaction 16.23 NEAR 56 s after buying · transaction -0.58 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
16 366d7bbb8979583…b31f0 109 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 22.2 min after buying · transaction -0.31 NEAR none found
17 579b7294974b54d…30203 114 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 38 s after buying · transaction -0.86 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 22.5 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.6 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
18 c6841cd06bc7472…567d1 2.3 min · transaction 0.99 NEAR 20.8 min after buying · transaction -0.32 NEAR none found
19 eeeb3e53f579ab2…f3428 2.7 min · transaction 14.85 NEAR 9.5 min after buying · transaction -1.43 NEAR
pair bought within 48.3 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20 slaynz.near 2.9 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 10.6 min after buying · transaction -4.47 NEAR
pair bought within 36.4 s of barrey.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of teend.near

None known.