CODEC nearly.trade

codec-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 85 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+50
8 of the 9 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 8 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 76%.
Evidence: launch arcade.nearlytrade.near, launch request.nearlytrade.near, launch cata.nearlytrade.near, launch wakeup.nearlytrade.near, launch nrtz.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (2.400% per buy, 2.400% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch codec-2.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 51.14 NEAR 2 min before the launch from 7ae81e34915efe09ff6630cb9066c09ee5778a9f3cb62409fc99751ec1621bad, whose earlier launch arcade.nearlytrade.near (made by arcadeai.near, linked to him) ended as a rug; 3 such funders in all.
Evidence: transaction 7N5NCJVH1XZGoWCar…A6VhA, launch arcade.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'codec' was already used 3.8 h earlier by another creator (codec.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch codec.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1570 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 2.95 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: 79a7ddcc9a059517105e3…d41b3 (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-30 23:55:25 UTC, 44.2 min after the launch: 536DaaG62E2tL…epDkg.
Outside buyers' net result: -2.95 NEAR · insiders' net result: -2.74 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-30 23:11:10 UTC · block 217980010 · history: launch only
Transaction	4Cq49bLgowr71…ukTbo
Creator	79a7ddcc9a059517105e36d1e75c86b87c66565aaa3bbac8736fe15bef4d41b3 explorer
Pool	codec-2.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	10.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-02 22:11 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-02 22:11 UTC
Price now	0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.88x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	0 of 9 · 0%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0% · 0 of 5 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	—

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	44.2 min	44.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	5	8	8	9	9
Buyers spent	18.81 NEAR	34.31 NEAR	34.31 NEAR	35.61 NEAR	35.61 NEAR
Buyers net result	-1.26 NEAR	-1.00 NEAR	-1.00 NEAR	-2.95 NEAR	-3.01 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	-0.12 NEAR	+0.90 NEAR	+0.90 NEAR	-2.74 NEAR	-2.74 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.02x	1.09x	1.09x	1.09x	1.09x
Holders	5	8	8	3	5
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.0% · holds	3.4% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0.3% · 3 of 3 hold	0.8% · 5 of 5 hold	0.1% · 1 of 5 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	—	—	—
Other early buyers	<0.01% · 1 of 2 hold	0.8% · 2 of 3 hold	0.1% · 2 of 4 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0.3% · 5 wallets	1.7% · 8 wallets	0.2% · 9 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	98.6%	94.9%	99.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 9 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54	10 s · transaction	0.01 NEAR	not sold	-0.0006 NEAR	none found
2	peekaby.near	68 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	29 s after buying · transaction	-1.15 NEAR	none found
3	ex3dex.tg	114 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.07 NEAR	dev side received 35.98 NEAR from snowy_machine.u….near (a member of the dev's linked group), 139.9 min before its first buy · transaction
4	e9ade4b5c4fc9f2…b98f0	3.6 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	43.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.18 NEAR	dev side received 4.00 NEAR from 79a7ddcc9a05951…d41b3 (the dev), 32 s before its first buy · transaction
5	socvdhub.near	4.9 min · transaction	0.80 NEAR	42.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.08 NEAR	dev side received 1.00 NEAR from e9ade4b5c4fc9f2…b98f0 (a member of the dev's linked group), 35 s before its first buy · transaction
6	7ae81e34915efe0…21bad	6.1 min · transaction	1.80 NEAR	40.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.17 NEAR	dev side received 2.00 NEAR from 79a7ddcc9a05951…d41b3 (the dev), 26 s before its first buy · transaction
7	2a4932ca8c80206…be2a3	7.4 min · transaction	3.70 NEAR	37.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.36 NEAR	dev side received 4.00 NEAR from 79a7ddcc9a05951…d41b3 (the dev), 24 s before its first buy · transaction
8	kimpet77.near	9.4 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	32.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.76 NEAR	none found
9	nomasfiat.near	30.7 min · transaction	1.30 NEAR	not sold	-0.18 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 79a7ddcc9a059517105e3…d41b3

None known.