EAR nearly.trade

ear-4.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 65 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+30
1 of the 1 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 1 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 47%.
Evidence: launch illintent.nearlyt….near
+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch ear-4.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 15.38 NEAR 39 min before the launch from skid_near.near, whose earlier launch illintent.nearlytrade.near (made by illintent.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction HZe93EtYd7eN3Wchg…P1Qq6, launch illintent.nearlyt….near
+5
The name 'ear' was already used 72.7 h earlier by another creator (ear-3.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch ear-3.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2164 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 5.78 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 102.3% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: vahlaladev.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-02 17:57:46 UTC, 10.7 min after the launch: 6M35Gzgj41STu…DseGB.
Outside buyers' net result: -5.78 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.06 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-02 17:47:05 UTC · block 218235311 · history: launch only
Transaction	HFkLs7v81GALu…AMFvy
Creator	vahlaladev.near explorer
Pool	ear-4.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	13.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-03 00:49 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	102.3%	102.3%
Dev's first sell after launch	3.7 min	3.7 min	3.7 min	3.7 min	3.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	15	16	16	16	16
Buyers spent	77.73 NEAR	92.73 NEAR	92.73 NEAR	92.73 NEAR	92.73 NEAR
Buyers net result	-4.35 NEAR	-5.54 NEAR	-5.54 NEAR	-5.78 NEAR	-6.97 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	102.3%	102.3%
Insiders' net result	+0.99 NEAR	+0.63 NEAR	+0.63 NEAR	+1.06 NEAR	+1.06 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.14x	1.14x	1.14x	1.14x	1.14x
Holders	6	5	9	7	5
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	2.8% · 5 of 14 hold	2.6% · 4 of 14 hold	2.5% · 2 of 14 hold
Other early buyers	0.1% · 1 of 1 hold	0.1% · 1 of 2 hold	0.1% · 1 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	2.9% · 15 wallets	2.7% · 16 wallets	2.5% · 16 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	97.1%	97.3%	97.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 16 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	10 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.37 NEAR	pair bought within 8.4 s of neverekt.near · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
2	neverekt.near	18 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.08 NEAR	pair bought within 8.4 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	47dd6e35850af27…57fd4	2.0 min · transaction	26.73 NEAR	not sold	-1.32 NEAR	pair bought within 6.0 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.4 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.4 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
4	3347dd8076331ad…52407	2.1 min · transaction	0.50 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 19.0 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.1 s of sessssssssss.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.7 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
5	fd5c09668cb779b…28411	2.3 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	90 s after buying · transaction	-0.22 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
6	a61602ebdc9b583…012fc	2.3 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	89 s after buying · transaction	-0.22 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4	2.3 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	89 s after buying · transaction	-0.22 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607	2.3 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	90 s after buying · transaction	-0.43 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9	7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6	2.3 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	89 s after buying · transaction	-0.43 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27	2.3 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	92 s after buying · transaction	-0.55 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches pair bought within 1.7 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.7 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11	886fd94398f173c…35c2c	2.3 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	96 s after buying · transaction	-0.66 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 26 of those launches pair bought within 0.7 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
12	alola.near	2.4 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.15 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 15.0 s of sessssssssss.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.0 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.9 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
13	b8185e452876272…dff87	2.6 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.13 NEAR	pair bought within 13.7 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of sessssssssss.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.7 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	sessssssssss.near	2.7 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	72 s after buying · transaction	-0.68 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 15.0 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.1 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	07c4f546ac45df7…72216	3.6 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.13 NEAR	none found
16	lambadaa.near	7.2 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	69 s after buying · transaction	-0.90 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of vahlaladev.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-02 18:05 UTC	nearly.trade	bnear-3.nearlytrade.near	65 High retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-02 18:18 UTC	nearly.trade	nwa.nearlytrade.near	60 High retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-02 18:22 UTC	nearly.trade	ncts.nearlytrade.near	60 High retro	no rug	history: launch only