essplus.v2-launchpad.ju….near justhoot v2

essplus.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 10 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+10
Received 10.00 NEAR 106.5 h before the launch from skyto.near, whose earlier launch fugue.nearlytrade.near (made by eb1e8770fdf12c029e091746a82145787052368956a542427e873a3021dcba46, linked to him) ended as a rug; 2 such funders in all.
Evidence: transaction 5LmrkboVrV7qBbD5g…6nDFN, launch fugue.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 41 % (789 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -0.05 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 58% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-26 07:09:33 UTC · block 221654989 · history: launch only
Transaction	HTQ8G7BUuHdko…5cwT9
Creator	jakeronthia.near explorer
Pool	essplus.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near\|hoot-8ecf65.launchpad.justhoot.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-05 17:45 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-05 17:45 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.57x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	16 of 45 · 35.5%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 12 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	27	38	43	44	44
Buyers spent	0.96 NEAR	1.41 NEAR	1.62 NEAR	1.72 NEAR	1.72 NEAR
Buyers net result	+0.25 NEAR	+0.20 NEAR	+0.24 NEAR	+0.04 NEAR	-0.05 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.71x	1.74x	1.74x	1.74x	1.74x
Holders	23	27	29	23	5
Top 10 holders' share	86.9%	82.2%	82.1%	89.4%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	11.8% · 10 of 12 hold	2.2% · 5 of 12 hold	1.6% · 4 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	11.8% · 15 of 15 hold	17.7% · 17 of 18 hold	10.0% · 12 of 18 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	23.6% · 27 wallets	19.9% · 30 wallets	11.6% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	76.4%	80.1%	88.4%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	86.9%	82.2%	89.4%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	87.2% · 2 merged	82.2% · 1 merged	89.4% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	5 s · transaction	0.0025 NEAR	not sold	+0.0010 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.5 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of cockis.near · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
2	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	5 s · transaction	0.0074 NEAR	not sold	+0.0028 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.5 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of cockis.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
3	cockis.near	6 s · transaction	0.0025 NEAR	not sold	+0.0009 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 64 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 157 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	7 s · transaction	0.0025 NEAR	60 s after buying · transaction	+0.0004 NEAR	pair bought within 2.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of cockis.near · 157 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
5	js1112s.near	16 s · transaction	0.04 NEAR	not sold	+0.01 NEAR	pair bought within 11.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	2a7f31817cd7531…aa3ba	28 s · transaction	0.09 NEAR	68 s after buying · transaction	+0.0089 NEAR	pair bought within 22.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.3 s of js1112s.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7	krhuize.tg	43 s · transaction	0.06 NEAR	16.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.0019 NEAR	none found
8	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	46 s · transaction	0.11 NEAR	6.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 22 of those launches pair bought within 41.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.0 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	51 s · transaction	0.07 NEAR	8.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 46.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 67 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.8 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 30 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	96952333f9d9862…d9f77	90 s · transaction	0.01 NEAR	5.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.0034 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 44.0 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.4 s of 748545ba09e20b4…50999 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.7 s of shortgirl.user.….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
11	748545ba09e20b4…50999	96 s · transaction	0.0055 NEAR	5.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.0015 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches pair bought within 6.4 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.3 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	971954101d94136…39fda	97 s · transaction	0.0083 NEAR	5.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.0023 NEAR	none found
13	stranger.user.i….near	101 s · transaction	0.12 NEAR	5.3 min after buying · transaction	+0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 55.0 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.0 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	riehych.user.in….near	116 s · transaction	0.0044 NEAR	not sold	+0.0003 NEAR	none found
15	shortgirl.user.….near	2.5 min · transaction	0.02 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0064 NEAR	pair bought within 56.7 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	moonvale.near	2.7 min · transaction	0.0020 NEAR	5.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.0002 NEAR	none found
17	gracychen11.near	2.8 min · transaction	0.02 NEAR	28.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.0018 NEAR	none found
18	0x_mert.near	3.4 min · transaction	0.24 NEAR	27.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	none found
19	1070fb609924e73…7cc3b	3.4 min · transaction	0.05 NEAR	13.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.0003 NEAR	none found
20	52414e9ea9dde75….near	3.8 min · transaction	0.03 NEAR	not sold	-0.0037 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of jakeronthia.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-17 19:57 UTC	nearly.trade	robin-3.nearlytrade.near	25 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-26 17:14 UTC	nearly.trade	nearvember.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only