NEARVEMBER nearly.trade

nearvember.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 30 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 18.00% of it (0.180% per buy, 0.180% per sell; creator_bps 3000, platform_bps 4000).
    Evidence: launch nearvember.nearly….near
  • +10
    Received 10.00 NEAR 116.5 h before the launch from skyto.near, whose earlier launch fugue.nearlytrade.near (made by eb1e8770fdf12c029e091746a82145787052368956a542427e873a3021dcba46, linked to him) ended as a rug; 2 such funders in all.
    Evidence: transaction 5LmrkboVrV7qBbD5g…6nDFN, launch fugue.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 40 % (805 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -19.64 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 57% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-26 17:14:46 UTC · block 221718278 · history: launch only
Transaction9V6mNtX96Xm97…yV77h
Creatorjakeronthia.near explorer
Poolnearvember.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 30.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-02 02:15 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-02 02:15 UTC
Price now0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.49x the peak
Outside buyers in profit16 of 33 · 48.5%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 19 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)1723242931
Buyers spent348.33 NEAR473.60 NEAR479.60 NEAR739.46 NEAR741.46 NEAR
Buyers net result+0.04 NEAR+23.49 NEAR+26.14 NEAR+116.52 NEAR-19.64 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.63x1.63x1.63x2.03x2.03x
Holders101513154
Top 10 holders' share100%97.9%98.4%96.9%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 9.1% · 10 of 17 hold 11.8% · 12 of 19 hold 11.3% · 8 of 19 hold
Other early buyers — 5.3% · 4 of 4 hold 15.5% · 7 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)9.1% · 17 wallets17.1% · 23 wallets26.8% · 29 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)90.9%82.9%73.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%97.9%96.9%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged99.4% · 2 merged98.7% · 2 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold +0.84 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 12 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper 3 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 16.1 min after buying · transaction +0.19 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 12 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
3 tyty.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 31.0 min after buying · transaction +0.38 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
4 wrapz-z.near independent sniper 3 s · transaction 3.00 NEAR 2.1 min after buying · transaction +0.45 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 12 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
5 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 5 s · transaction 21.94 NEAR not sold +17.15 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches
pair bought within 1.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.8 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
6 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 11 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold +3.68 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 114 of those launches
pair bought within 8.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.7 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
7 5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc 14 s · transaction 1.20 NEAR not sold +0.87 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 69 of those launches
pair bought within 10.8 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.0 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 46 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
8 js1112s.near 15 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 104 s after buying · transaction +6.20 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches
pair bought within 12.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.8 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
9 56c9a6ef438223b….near 15 s · transaction 94.00 NEAR 107 s after buying · transaction +4.68 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 21 of those launches
pair bought within 12.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 61 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
10 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede 22 s · transaction 89.64 NEAR 55 s after buying · transaction +34.13 NEAR
pair bought within 18.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.0 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
11 phbo.near 24 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 47 s after buying · transaction +0.70 NEAR
pair bought within 20.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 50 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 50 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
12 alola.near 25 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.2 min after buying · transaction +0.0034 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 21.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.8 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 13 more pairs · all pairs
13 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 26 s · transaction 65.00 NEAR 107 s after buying · transaction -2.21 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 1.5 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
14 5d8f34a3434e2ec…d9c57 29 s · transaction 6.59 NEAR 60 s after buying · transaction +0.09 NEAR
pair bought within 4.1 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 26.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 26.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
15 sneaky_jambolog….near 36 s · transaction 9.90 NEAR 84 s after buying · transaction -1.17 NEAR
pair bought within 33.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.4 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
16 h2onear.near 38 s · transaction 14.00 NEAR 7.7 min after buying · transaction -0.98 NEAR
pair bought within 13.5 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.7 s of phbo.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
17 km686.tg 47 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 3.9 min after buying · transaction -4.09 NEAR
pair bought within 20.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.4 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.9 s of h2onear.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
18 fastest.user.in….near 5.3 min · transaction 4.95 NEAR 17.0 min after buying · transaction +0.72 NEAR none found
19 hybrid.user.int….near 9.3 min · transaction 38.11 NEAR 22.9 min after buying · transaction +1.91 NEAR none found
20 c3f8bfd9b2668a2…95e1a 10.5 min · transaction 24.90 NEAR not sold +10.19 NEAR
pair bought within 21.0 s of b7fea875a454f51…24509 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of jakeronthia.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-17 19:57 UTC nearly.trade robin-3.nearlytrade.near 25 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-26 07:09 UTC justhoot v2 essplus.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only