ROBIN nearly.trade

robin-3.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch robin-3.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'robin' was already used 91.6 h earlier by another creator (robin-2.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch robin-2.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 23 % (809 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 60 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 6; they sold 100.3% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: hurikh4n.near (recipient), brave-dash-6709.racer….near (recipient).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-18 05:40:32 UTC, 583.0 min after the launch: GBeNL7jKS5QtA…sjY4n.
Received tokens from the dev: root.near, auragainz.near, hurikh4n.near, fullgems.near, brave-dash-6709.racer….near.
Outside buyers' net result: +581.37 NEAR · insiders' net result: -91.33 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 60% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-17 19:57:34 UTC · block 220412289 · history: launch only
Transaction	43U5gAsUj6vso…Cr6td
Creator	jakeronthia.near explorer
Pool	robin-3.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 17:49 UTC

18 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit	36	111 of 306 outside buyers
Buy pressure	0	buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak	34	the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity	0	0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-12 23:05 UTC
Price now	1.90x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.34x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	111 of 306 · 36.3%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	1.1% · 3 of 5 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 11 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	11	18	50	97	219
Buyers spent	82.32 NEAR	211.82 NEAR	646.12 NEAR	1,692.97 NEAR	7,550.75 NEAR
Buyers net result	+0.81 NEAR	+16.63 NEAR	+214.24 NEAR	+508.24 NEAR	+581.37 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	6
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	100.3%
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	-91.33 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.16x	1.30x	2.19x	3.03x	5.58x
Holders	9	14	51	72	87
Top 10 holders' share	100%	97.8%	66.6%	55.7%	57.1%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	2.8% · 7 of 9 hold	3.8% · 8 of 11 hold	2.9% · 8 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	2.0% · 2 of 2 hold	9.4% · 6 of 7 hold	12.9% · 16 of 19 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	4.7% · 11 wallets	13.3% · 18 wallets	15.8% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	95.2%	86.7%	84.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	97.8%	55.7%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	98.5% · 1 merged	55.9% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	6.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of ro52.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
2	ro52.near	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	36.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.69 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
3	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	7.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
4	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	3 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	not sold	+6.41 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.5 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
5	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	5 s · transaction	20.06 NEAR	27.0 min after buying · transaction	+29.59 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 1.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
6	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	9 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+9.30 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 114 of those launches pair bought within 6.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.5 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
7	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	66 s · transaction	70.14 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+10.51 NEAR	pair bought within 30.7 s of alola.near · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.3 s of 5807dd1bbba54c9….near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.6 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	5807dd1bbba54c9….near	85 s · transaction	28.00 NEAR	115 s after buying · transaction	+12.84 NEAR	pair bought within 11.5 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.3 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	alola.near	96 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	43.7 min after buying · transaction	+1.35 NEAR	pair bought within 30.7 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.5 s of 5807dd1bbba54c9….near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	9b83ca1932bc8d9…b21db	106 s · transaction	20.69 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	-1.76 NEAR	none found
11	tiadoyinnn.near	2.8 min · transaction	4.00 NEAR	47.6 min after buying · transaction	+4.28 NEAR	none found
12	shikigima.near	9.9 min · transaction	45.00 NEAR	13.8 min after buying · transaction	+28.26 NEAR	none found
13	ccccaaa.near	11.8 min · transaction	95.00 NEAR	23.7 min after buying · transaction	+21.64 NEAR	none found
14	jehoti.near	12.1 min · transaction	4.00 NEAR	not sold	+2.73 NEAR	none found
15	1f7901814bc2725…c72c6	13.2 min · transaction	15.84 NEAR	not sold	+22.45 NEAR	none found
16	toxic_parasite.….near	13.2 min · transaction	9.90 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+5.37 NEAR	pair bought within 19.3 s of frigid_polar1.u….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	frigid_polar1.u….near	13.5 min · transaction	2.97 NEAR	22.0 min after buying · transaction	+1.50 NEAR	pair bought within 19.3 s of toxic_parasite.….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	capuccino88.near	14.6 min · transaction	43.56 NEAR	not sold	+53.16 NEAR	none found
19	sneaky_jambolog….near	15.3 min · transaction	6.93 NEAR	not sold	+8.45 NEAR	none found
20	1e3e1c83ce489cb…33345	15.5 min · transaction	1.98 NEAR	not sold	+2.38 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of jakeronthia.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-26 07:09 UTC	justhoot v2	essplus.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	10 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-26 17:14 UTC	nearly.trade	nearvember.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only