GUS nearly.trade

gus-4.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 35.00% of it (1.050% per buy, 1.050% per sell; creator_bps 5000, platform_bps 3000).
    Evidence: launch gus-4.nearlytrade.near
  • +5
    The name 'gus' was already used 5.1 h earlier by another creator (gus-3.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch gus-3.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (near_ai_near.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2138 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 3; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Received tokens from the dev: root.near, cuziasd.near.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -17.55 NEAR · insiders' net result: +10.35 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 35% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-02 16:19:20 UTC · block 218226351 · history: launch only
TransactionCWUCtCGgFrR6R…EnRAv
Creatorgustav-meme.near explorer
Poolgus-4.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy9.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 50.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-11 20:56 UTC
Price now1.07x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.18x the peak
Outside buyers in profit40 of 217 · 18.4%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev3.7% · 31 of 54 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side3.2% · 2 of 5 hold
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 16 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)80137154180233
Buyers spent1,558.51 NEAR2,412.39 NEAR2,774.29 NEAR3,168.50 NEAR3,648.09 NEAR
Buyers net result+1,594.00 NEAR+1,692.67 NEAR+794.71 NEAR+779.90 NEAR-17.55 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)13333
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+36.83 NEAR+39.35 NEAR+25.17 NEAR+25.46 NEAR+10.35 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer4.97x5.99x5.99x5.99x5.99x
Holders69114104129127
Top 10 holders' share54.1%49.0%52.5%48.8%63.7%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.8% · holds 0.6% · holds 0.6% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — 0.2% · 2 of 2 hold 0.2% · 2 of 2 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side 11.8% · 5 of 5 hold 9.7% · 5 of 5 hold 9.3% · 5 of 5 hold
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 11.0% · 12 of 16 hold 8.9% · 8 of 16 hold 3.0% · 5 of 16 hold
Other early buyers 15.2% · 9 of 9 hold 12.8% · 9 of 9 hold 12.2% · 8 of 9 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)38.1% · 30 wallets31.4% · 30 wallets24.6% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)61.1%67.7%74.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)54.1%49.0%48.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder54.6% · 2 merged49.0% · 1 merged48.8% · 0 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 ebachman.tg 14 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR not sold +131.07 NEAR none found
2 snowy_machine.u….near 17 s · transaction 57.03 NEAR 7.4 min after buying · transaction +140.77 NEAR
dev side received 65.00 NEAR from xenora.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 49.6 min before its first buy · transaction
pair bought within 20.8 s of igor_ua5.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 unfair_snowflak….near 17 s · transaction 48.30 NEAR not sold +96.31 NEAR none found
4 cyber_processor….near 18 s · transaction 11.60 NEAR 3.7 min after buying · transaction +23.46 NEAR
pair bought within 18.6 s of js1112s.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 xyu.user.intear.near 20 s · transaction 7.92 NEAR 12.6 min after buying · transaction +18.51 NEAR none found
6 walmond777.user….near 22 s · transaction 33.08 NEAR 7.3 min after buying · transaction +63.04 NEAR none found
7 blizzard_dog69.….near 22 s · transaction 34.69 NEAR not sold +54.26 NEAR
dev side received 40.00 NEAR from xenora.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 23.5 min before its first buy · transaction
8 internal.user.i….near 28 s · transaction 29.70 NEAR 8.0 min after buying · transaction +49.96 NEAR none found
9 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 34 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction +61.93 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 20.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.0 s of js1112s.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.8 s of kimpet77.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 13 more pairs · all pairs
10 js1112s.near 37 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 28.1 min after buying · transaction +21.76 NEAR
pair bought within 3.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.6 s of cyber_processor….near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11 igor_ua5.near 38 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 8.2 min after buying · transaction +25.22 NEAR
pair bought within 4.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.8 s of snowy_machine.u….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 sergeserge1.tg 40 s · transaction 56.00 NEAR not sold +51.69 NEAR
dev side received 41.73 NEAR from vasilevs.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 2618.0 min before its first buy · transaction
pair bought within 6.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 robotic_degen3.….near 43 s · transaction 39.60 NEAR 6.6 min after buying · transaction +23.38 NEAR none found
14 kimpet77.near 44 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction +11.01 NEAR
pair bought within 9.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.0 s of sessssssssss.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
15 a3cb153394cd999…41e6c 44 s · transaction 3.00 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction +3.06 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches
pair bought within 27.3 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.9 s of 5249d63913e1405…591d1 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of kimpet77.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
16 equalharbor5773.near 51 s · transaction 24.75 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +30.43 NEAR
pair bought within 16.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.0 s of kimpet77.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
17 e8a162641a55288…58210 54 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction +4.69 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 20.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.6 s of sessssssssss.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.2 s of js1112s.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
18 5249d63913e1405…591d1 56 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR 6.6 min after buying · transaction +19.64 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 7 of those launches
pair bought within 12.5 s of kimpet77.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.9 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.4 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
19 kirillsokolovsky.tg 63 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold +14.62 NEAR none found
20 arctic_glacier5….near 64 s · transaction 14.85 NEAR 52.7 min after buying · transaction +8.55 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of gustav-meme.near

None known.