HOOT nearly.trade

hoot-11.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 85 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+50
79 of the 132 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 79 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 59%.
Evidence: launch punks-4.nearlytrade.near, launch lox-2.nearlytrade.near, launch olivine-13.nearly….near, launch rex-5.nearlytrade.near, launch nearmoon.nearlytr….near
+20
Trade tax 4.00% buy / 4.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (3.200% per buy, 3.200% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch hoot-11.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 8.98 NEAR 1 min before the launch from 82030f49b33bc464094eaf9811ed121fc74fa549c51073d1183aa7f0c2c5f4f9, whose earlier launch punks-4.nearlytrade.near (made by punksnear.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 67sf9tsUmi21aG16A…DhCJg, launch punks-4.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'hoot' was already used 2.4 h earlier by another creator (hoot-10.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch hoot-10.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 15 % (1081 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 12.85 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 109.2% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: 82030f49b33bc464094ea…5f4f9 (recipient), hoothoothoot.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 14:57:32 UTC, 72 s after the launch: FtLRfxeWVAeU8…sGcUy.
Received tokens from the dev: 82030f49b33bc464094ea…5f4f9.
Outside buyers' net result: -12.85 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.70 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 14:56:20 UTC · block 217791693 · history: launch only
Transaction	Hteq2JeNu5RQi…Fin24
Creator	hoothoothoot.near explorer
Pool	hoot-11.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	8.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 4.00% · sell 4.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-30 07:00 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	9.2%	9.2%	9.2%	10.1%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	7.9 min	7.9 min	7.9 min	7.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	11	11	11	11	11
Buyers spent	127.15 NEAR	127.15 NEAR	127.15 NEAR	127.15 NEAR	127.15 NEAR
Buyers net result	-12.85 NEAR	-12.85 NEAR	-12.85 NEAR	-12.85 NEAR	-12.85 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	2	2	2	2	2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100.0%	109.2%	109.2%	109.2%	110.1%
Insiders' net result	+1.02 NEAR	+1.70 NEAR	+1.70 NEAR	+1.70 NEAR	+1.76 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.22x	1.22x	1.22x	1.22x	1.22x
Holders	4	3	5	5	5
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	<0.01% · holds	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	<0.01% · 2 of 11 hold	<0.01% · 2 of 11 hold	<0.01% · 2 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	—
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0% · 11 wallets	0% · 11 wallets	0% · 11 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 11 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	gigasnipe.near	31 s · transaction	19.40 NEAR	64 s after buying · transaction	-1.69 NEAR	group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of betteralex.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of samegrain2799.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of steepgoat5771.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
2	betteralex.near	31 s · transaction	19.40 NEAR	64 s after buying · transaction	-1.74 NEAR	group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of gigasnipe.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of samegrain2799.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of steepgoat5771.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
3	steepgoat5771.near	31 s · transaction	19.40 NEAR	64 s after buying · transaction	-1.23 NEAR	group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of betteralex.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of gigasnipe.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of samegrain2799.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
4	samegrain2799.near	32 s · transaction	19.40 NEAR	63 s after buying · transaction	-2.42 NEAR	group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of betteralex.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of gigasnipe.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of steepgoat5771.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
5	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	48 s · transaction	7.91 NEAR	39 s after buying · transaction	-0.53 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
6	6cac4e44915931a…b5879	48 s · transaction	7.91 NEAR	38 s after buying · transaction	-0.54 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
7	3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735	48 s · transaction	7.91 NEAR	39 s after buying · transaction	-0.92 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8	03712631d52c0ad…1b110	48 s · transaction	7.91 NEAR	38 s after buying · transaction	-0.65 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9	b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1	48 s · transaction	7.91 NEAR	39 s after buying · transaction	-1.02 NEAR	group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10	e8a162641a55288…58210	67 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	24 s after buying · transaction	-0.79 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 18.8 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.8 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.8 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
11	c964f0a446c4f56…8802e	86 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	16 s after buying · transaction	-1.31 NEAR	pair bought within 37.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.9 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of hoothoothoot.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-29 18:30 UTC	nearly.trade	hoot-12.nearlytrade.near	85 High retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-09-30 11:28 UTC	nearly.trade	hoot-16.nearlytrade.near	65 High retro	rug	history: launch only