ILA nearly.trade

ila.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch ila.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (shaotaik.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 4 % (382 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: +240.45 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 43% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 15:24:56 UTC · block 217649821 · history: launch only
Transaction713Xf3DtQRcEW…tpkF1
Creatorlaunchbot.nearlytrade.near explorer
Owner (paid the launch bot)badyak9963.near
evidence: BQRn1RfiaGgR9bdL6jGLUZcdf222CuJvWrx5MgxCJZK5
Poolila.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy8.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-03 11:53 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-03 11:53 UTC
Price now1.05x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.18x the peak
Outside buyers in profit72 of 211 · 34.1%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 11 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)2971111122192
Buyers spent616.98 NEAR1,348.61 NEAR1,857.05 NEAR2,013.48 NEAR4,212.87 NEAR
Buyers net result+208.18 NEAR+1,037.85 NEAR+1,771.11 NEAR+692.07 NEAR+240.45 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer2.33x4.04x5.37x5.42x6.00x
Holders29681038673
Top 10 holders' share63.1%43.8%38.0%43.0%53.4%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 10.2% · 9 of 11 hold 4.9% · 7 of 11 hold 0.1% · 1 of 11 hold
Other early buyers 21% · 18 of 18 hold 21.2% · 19 of 19 hold 21.2% · 19 of 19 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)31.2% · 29 wallets26.0% · 30 wallets21.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)68.8%74.0%78.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)63.1%43.8%43.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder68.3% · 2 merged43.8% · 2 merged43.0% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 x0xdead.near 28 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold +11.88 NEAR
early buyer in 242 of 729 launches (not put in a group)
2 857a46631d0e241…381d0 77 s · transaction 19.90 NEAR not sold +45.71 NEAR none found
3 f5f250720825e15…70cd3 82 s · transaction 19.90 NEAR not sold +43.29 NEAR none found
4 7ce0a3e28d6a9e6…f6633 99 s · transaction 69.65 NEAR 2.3 min after buying · transaction +56.25 NEAR
pair bought within 10.8 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 kimpet77.near 110 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 2.5 min after buying · transaction +6.67 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 38.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.4 s of 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
6 alola.near 110 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 8.3 min after buying · transaction +2.41 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 38.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of kimpet77.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.4 s of 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7 99a3c76489235dd…1cb9d 115 s · transaction 29.85 NEAR not sold +48.67 NEAR none found
8 ad583d0e861bf0a…c3f77 2.1 min · transaction 19.90 NEAR not sold +30.30 NEAR none found
9 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e 2.4 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 112 s after buying · transaction +58.70 NEAR
pair bought within 6.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.4 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 49.9 s of barrey.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
10 e8a162641a55288…58210 2.5 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 99 s after buying · transaction +4.08 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 38.0 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 38.0 s of kimpet77.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.9 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11 5f38a315d8d18a4…8fefc 2.6 min · transaction 19.90 NEAR not sold +24.25 NEAR none found
12 12356da75e7cb18…20eb8 2.6 min · transaction 59.70 NEAR not sold +64.96 NEAR none found
13 llllord.near 2.8 min · transaction 40.00 NEAR 35.9 min after buying · transaction +65.07 NEAR
pair bought within 19.3 s of aceng03.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.5 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.7 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be 2.8 min · transaction 25.00 NEAR 10.8 min after buying · transaction +29.14 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 16.2 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.4 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.8 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
15 aa39a4d16ed663f…8d268 2.9 min · transaction 19.90 NEAR not sold +16.78 NEAR none found
16 a8080d341935d78…e1cc8 3.0 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold +15.85 NEAR none found
17 aceng03.near 3.1 min · transaction 8.00 NEAR 25.3 min after buying · transaction +10.64 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 33 of those launches
pair bought within 14.2 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.2 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
18 a98e726c755db35…a3255 3.1 min · transaction 0.99 NEAR 15.8 min after buying · transaction +1.19 NEAR
pair bought within 1.7 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.5 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 barrey.near 3.2 min · transaction 2.98 NEAR 10.9 min after buying · transaction +2.65 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches
pair bought within 6.4 s of aceng03.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 43.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.8 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
20 d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a 3.3 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 2.0 min after buying · transaction -2.38 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches
pair bought within 14.2 s of aceng03.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.4 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.8 s of barrey.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of badyak9963.near

None known.