In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (128 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 19.3 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 19.3% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +10004.79 NEAR · insiders' net result: +366.42 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 27% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-27 00:21:39 UTC · block 217412302 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-09 17:56 UTC
Price now
1.67x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.02x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
155 of 584 · 26.5%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
0% · 0 of 2 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
7.9% · 8 of 12 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
19.3%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
163.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
22
77
114
128
507
Buyers spent
756.35 NEAR
2,858.46 NEAR
4,559.91 NEAR
5,375.69 NEAR
38,905.41 NEAR
Buyers net result
+577.97 NEAR
+6,944.71 NEAR
+8,178.02 NEAR
+6,852.74 NEAR
+10,004.79 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
19.3%
Insiders' net result
-0.50 NEAR
+162.89 NEAR
+191.06 NEAR
+163.14 NEAR
+366.42 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
3.00x
12.91x
18.73x
18.73x
68.63x
Holders
24
78
107
116
375
Top 10 holders' share
66.0%
43.1%
40.0%
38.9%
29.3%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
1.6% · holds
1.6% · holds
1.6% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
6.2% · 2 of 2 hold
6.2% · 2 of 2 hold
4.3% · 2 of 2 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
18.0% · 11 of 11 hold
18.3% · 12 of 12 hold
17.2% · 12 of 12 hold
Other early buyers
17.7% · 9 of 9 hold
28.0% · 16 of 16 hold
24.7% · 14 of 16 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
41.8% · 22 wallets
52.5% · 30 wallets
46.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
56.6%
45.9%
52.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
66.0%
43.1%
38.9%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
67.8% · 1 merged
44.1% · 1 merged
39.9% · 1 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.