ILLIA6 nearly.trade

illia6.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (0.700% per buy, 0.700% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
Evidence: launch illia6.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (3477fd7cc7cb9ebfd26e69d7902ccef90316ce23323efb4ecf51e3dd65c00424) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 23 % (1594 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Undefined. The insiders sold tokens into the pool, but their sold share does not exist for this launch (they acquired nothing through it), so we cannot say how much of their holding they sold: the outside buyers lost money, but "rug" or "no rug" is not stated. It is not counted in any rate.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: illia6.near (dev).
Outside buyers' net result: -10.56 NEAR · insiders' net result: +5.80 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 71% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-13 12:15:00 UTC · block 219815290 · history: launch only
Transaction	6Nnk3kbvcM1iY…E9JAL
Creator	launchbot.nearlytrade.near explorer
Owner (paid the launch bot)	illia6.near evidence: 3qogZErt12yxeWhUpnFp6pEYwdbGehQSjZMjNHzkUnDw
Pool	illia6.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	5.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-13 14:02 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	13.2 min	13.2 min	13.2 min	13.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	13	19	19	19	19
Buyers spent	100.69 NEAR	265.62 NEAR	265.62 NEAR	265.62 NEAR	265.62 NEAR
Buyers net result	+2.84 NEAR	-8.54 NEAR	-10.32 NEAR	-10.37 NEAR	-10.56 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	+5.80 NEAR	+5.80 NEAR	+5.80 NEAR	+5.80 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.19x	1.36x	1.36x	1.36x	1.36x
Holders	9	5	2	4	2
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	4.9% · 6 of 11 hold	0.1% · 2 of 14 hold	0% · 0 of 14 hold
Other early buyers	1.7% · 2 of 2 hold	2.8% · 3 of 5 hold	0.9% · 1 of 5 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	6.6% · 13 wallets	3.0% · 19 wallets	0.9% · 19 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	93.4%	97.0%	99.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 19 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 bot_developer	5 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.13 NEAR	pair bought within 19.2 s of js1112s.near · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.6 s of rusty_drone.use….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.4 s of 177d0dba946d26e….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2	js1112s.near	24 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	10.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.59 NEAR	pair bought within 19.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	177d0dba946d26e….near	26 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.40 NEAR	pair bought within 20.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	rusty_drone.use….near	57 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.79 NEAR	pair bought within 51.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
5	quick-rider-483….near	2.0 min · transaction	2.50 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 57.1 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.0 s of warmcatt.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.3 s of hungcoiiii1.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6	kulesh_off.user….near	2.6 min · transaction	5.94 NEAR	58 s after buying · transaction	+0.50 NEAR	pair bought within 23.7 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	warmcatt.near	2.7 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	7.3 min after buying · transaction	+0.61 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 10.3 s of km686.tg · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.3 s of hungcoiiii1.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.0 s of quick-rider-483….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	km686.tg	2.8 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	100 s after buying · transaction	+0.38 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 8.8 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.0 s of hungcoiiii1.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.3 s of warmcatt.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	hungcoiiii1.near	2.9 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	6.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.88 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 5.8 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.0 s of km686.tg · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.8 s of rekttin.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
10	rekttin.near	3.0 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	6.9 min after buying · transaction	+4.37 NEAR	pair bought within 1.0 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.8 s of hungcoiiii1.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	alola.near	3.0 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.16 NEAR	pair bought within 1.0 s of rekttin.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.8 s of km686.tg · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.7 s of kulesh_off.user….near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
12	8142a7ad072f239…8ad49	3.4 min · transaction	19.80 NEAR	13.9 min after buying · transaction	-2.90 NEAR	none found
13	holy_4d.tg	3.5 min · transaction	1.50 NEAR	6.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	none found
14	p0tz.near	5.4 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	-3.09 NEAR	pair bought within 17.5 s of 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede	5.7 min · transaction	75.00 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	-3.39 NEAR	pair bought within 59.2 s of 4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.5 s of p0tz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	crying_sentinel….near	6.1 min · transaction	4.95 NEAR	11.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.24 NEAR	none found
17	tpwuden.near	6.5 min · transaction	12.00 NEAR	not sold	-3.08 NEAR	none found
18	4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f	6.6 min · transaction	1.98 NEAR	3.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.24 NEAR	pair bought within 59.2 s of 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
19	tatyana_klym.tg	7.2 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	6.8 min after buying · transaction	-4.79 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of illia6.near

None known.