MATRIX nearly.trade

matrix.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 80 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+50
2 of the 2 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 2 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 60%.
Evidence: launch cat-3.nearlytrade.near, launch god.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 30.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3000).
Evidence: launch matrix.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 11.81 NEAR 13 min before the launch from catquantum.near, whose earlier launch cat-3.nearlytrade.near ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction ARANFcpBs7En3fKE6…cVURV, launch cat-3.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2680 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 10.13 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 107.7% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: matrixquant.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-08 10:02:08 UTC, 64 s after the launch: EHefjXPzPV3Ki…2hqBA.
Outside buyers' net result: -10.13 NEAR · insiders' net result: +2.98 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-08 10:01:04 UTC · block 219068811 · history: launch only
Transaction	BWpadQnRg7P2J…dmBR7
Creator	matrixquant.near explorer
Pool	matrix.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	10.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 30.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-12 19:07 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-12 19:07 UTC
Price now	0.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.77x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	8 of 17 · 47.0%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 14 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	107.7%	107.7%
Dev's first sell after launch	64 s	64 s	64 s	64 s	64 s
Buyers (other than the insiders)	17	17	17	17	17
Buyers spent	212.72 NEAR	212.72 NEAR	212.72 NEAR	212.72 NEAR	212.72 NEAR
Buyers net result	+1.88 NEAR	-9.74 NEAR	-9.74 NEAR	-10.13 NEAR	-10.14 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	107.7%	107.7%
Insiders' net result	+2.21 NEAR	+2.21 NEAR	+2.21 NEAR	+2.98 NEAR	+2.98 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.22x	1.22x	1.22x	1.22x	1.22x
Holders	6	6	6	3	3
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	2.7% · 3 of 14 hold	1.9% · 2 of 14 hold	1.8% · 1 of 14 hold
Other early buyers	6.6% · 3 of 3 hold	0.1% · 1 of 3 hold	0.1% · 1 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	9.3% · 17 wallets	2.0% · 17 wallets	1.9% · 17 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	90.7%	98.0%	98.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 17 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	7e4213671de0c86…672c0	9 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.55 NEAR	pair bought within 12.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.7 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.8 s of js1112s.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
2	b2a29568eb32627…0dda9	19 s · transaction	7.53 NEAR	59 s after buying · transaction	+0.25 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
3	bf9c9b725df0744…ca524	19 s · transaction	7.53 NEAR	58 s after buying · transaction	+0.25 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
4	57b75e37532eb09…faeea	19 s · transaction	7.53 NEAR	57 s after buying · transaction	+0.80 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
5	99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f	20 s · transaction	7.53 NEAR	57 s after buying · transaction	+0.57 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.5 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
6	2e6d3355d0e0fa4…ccbb1	20 s · transaction	7.53 NEAR	56 s after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 1.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
7	94feda709c301ed…63090	20 s · transaction	7.53 NEAR	56 s after buying · transaction	+0.13 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 1.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
8	82804aad087fc31…e82f3	20 s · transaction	7.53 NEAR	56 s after buying · transaction	+0.13 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.5 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
9	b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea	21 s · transaction	7.53 NEAR	56 s after buying · transaction	-0.17 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches pair bought within 2.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
10	js1112s.near	21 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	9.8 min after buying · transaction	-1.26 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches pair bought within 0.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.9 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.8 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
11	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	22 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	69 s after buying · transaction	-0.38 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 8.1 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.8 s of js1112s.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.6 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
12	alola.near	30 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.17 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 8.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.9 s of js1112s.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
13	soundsite36.near	30 s · transaction	39.60 NEAR	56 s after buying · transaction	-6.11 NEAR	pair bought within 8.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.9 s of b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.4 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
14	lowpant8440.near	73 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	19 s after buying · transaction	-0.20 NEAR	pair bought within 51.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.2 s of b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.7 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
15	ajida.near	108 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	6.2 min after buying · transaction	+1.08 NEAR	none found
16	4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f	3.5 min · transaction	19.80 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.64 NEAR	none found
17	cb404c1cd916a46…f4a64	4.5 min · transaction	18.62 NEAR	8.3 min after buying · transaction	-2.90 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of matrixquant.near

None known.