It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 20 % (1014 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -4.15 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.18 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 90% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-15 13:45:57 UTC · block 220085373 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-08 11:49 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-08 11:49 UTC
Price now
1.01x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.87x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
2 of 11 · 18.2%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 4 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
4
7
7
9
11
Buyers spent
38.71 NEAR
77.61 NEAR
77.61 NEAR
97.51 NEAR
137.51 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.67 NEAR
+0.66 NEAR
+0.11 NEAR
+2.70 NEAR
-4.15 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
+0.12 NEAR
+0.44 NEAR
+0.39 NEAR
+0.65 NEAR
+0.18 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.07x
1.11x
1.11x
1.14x
1.16x
Holders
7
8
7
9
7
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.5% · holds
0.5% · holds
0.5% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
0.8% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
2.1% · 2 of 4 hold
2.0% · 1 of 4 hold
2.0% · 1 of 4 hold
Other early buyers
—
3% · 2 of 3 hold
3.4% · 2 of 4 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
2.1% · 4 wallets
5.0% · 7 wallets
6.3% · 9 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
97.4%
94.5%
93.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 9 wallets that bought, and what links them
dev side received 45.00 NEAR from f572fafd82d2acc…508e8 (a member of the dev's linked group), 2520.0 min before its first buy · transaction
What the links mean
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.