mmli.nearlytrade.near
Risk score: Low 0 / 100 issued 2026-11-10 11:51 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0
No risk signal fired for this launch.
v1 — weights fitted on launch history. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Calibration in progress. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 38 % (272 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 9.09 NEAR.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-11T11:51 UTC with config v1-fit-1.
| Launched | 2026-11-10 11:51:35 UTC · block 223912173 · live |
|---|---|
| Transaction | 9aaFRD8PVuPgD…LscdA |
| Creator | tiojacale.near explorer |
| Pool | mmli.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000 |
| Dev buy | 42.51 NEAR |
| Tax options | buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00% |
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-11 05:42 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
| Last trade | 2026-11-11 05:42 UTC |
|---|---|
| Price now | 0.97x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.78x the peak |
| Outside buyers in profit | 1 of 4 · 25% |
| Last 15 min | 0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR) |
| Last 60 min | 0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR) |
| Buyers in the last hour | 0 |
| Dev account | 0% · 0 of 1 hold |
| Wallets that got tokens from the dev | — |
| Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side | — |
| Early buyers in a bundle | — |
| Early buyers in a pair or a trader group | — |
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
| Metric | T+5 min | T+15 min | T+30 min | T+60 min | T+24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired) | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Dev's first sell after launch | — | 14.0 min | 14.0 min | 14.0 min | 14.0 min |
| Buyers (other than the insiders) | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Buyers spent | 140.00 NEAR | 170.00 NEAR | 170.00 NEAR | 170.00 NEAR | 170.00 NEAR |
| Buyers net result | +11.72 NEAR | -5.49 NEAR | -5.49 NEAR | -9.09 NEAR | -11.83 NEAR |
| Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Insiders sold (share of what they acquired) | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Insiders' net result | +11.68 NEAR | +3.98 NEAR | +3.98 NEAR | +3.98 NEAR | +3.98 NEAR |
| Highest price vs first buyer | 1.20x | 1.25x | 1.25x | 1.25x | 1.25x |
| Holders | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Top 10 holders' share | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
| Holder | T+5 min | T+15 min | T+60 min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dev account | 3.9% · holds | 0% · holds nothing | 0% · holds nothing |
| Wallets that got tokens from the dev | — | — | — |
| Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side | — | — | — |
| Early buyers in a bundle | — | — | — |
| Early buyers in a pair or a trader group | — | — | — |
| Other early buyers | 10.9% · 3 of 3 hold | 6.8% · 3 of 4 hold | 6.8% · 3 of 4 hold |
| All early buyers (the six rows above) | 10.9% · 3 wallets | 6.8% · 4 wallets | 6.8% · 4 wallets |
| Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers) | 85.2% | 93.2% | 93.2% |
| Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets) | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder | 100% · 0 merged | 100% · 0 merged | 100% · 0 merged |
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
| # | Wallet | After the launch | Spent | First sell | Net result at T+60 | Links (recorded transfers and trades) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 74cc5b0c55d24af…1aa85 | 68 s · transaction | 40.00 NEAR | not sold | -0.46 NEAR | none found |
| 2 | divx6.tg | 84 s · transaction | 80.00 NEAR | 11.3 min after buying · transaction | +1.33 NEAR | none found |
| 3 | xiaochen2.near | 4.1 min · transaction | 20.00 NEAR | not sold | -3.58 NEAR | none found |
| 4 | ddac09fe7093451…19a8f | 9.8 min · transaction | 30.00 NEAR | not sold | -6.37 NEAR | none found |
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.
| Time | Launchpad | Token | Risk | Outcome | Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 17:31 UTC | nearly.trade | qbtc.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-11-10 11:42 UTC | nearly.trade | elonmusk.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low | no rug | live |