ELONMUSK nearly.trade

elonmusk.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 issued 2026-11-10 11:42 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
The launch is set up so that the creator takes 33.00% of trades as a tax (nearly creator_bps = 3300).
Evidence: launch elonmusk.nearlytr….near

The largest funder's (9c484fa5d2d069569ba063fc555c34e621ccd88fdbb0295fc79bad232621c5c1) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

v1 — weights fitted on launch history. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Calibration in progress. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 38 % (272 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. outside buyers' net result +288.82 NEAR, short of the 0.1 NEAR loss a rug needs; the price held at 42 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: tiojacale.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-11-10 11:43:56 UTC, 108 s after the launch: 2P4WzPJ9kKnqV…ZswAU.
Outside buyers' net result: +37.14 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.84 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 42% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-11T11:42 UTC with config v1-fit-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-11-10 11:42:07 UTC · block 223911175 · live
Transaction	BtBKn82cBKTkr…LTNdP
Creator	tiojacale.near explorer
Pool	elonmusk.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	42.51 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 15:44 UTC

13 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit	27	18 of 67 outside buyers
Buy pressure	0	buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak	26	the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity	0	0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-13 04:44 UTC
Price now	1.02x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.26x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	18 of 67 · 26.9%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	2.4% · 2 of 20 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	108 s	108 s	108 s	108 s	108 s
Buyers (other than the insiders)	12	18	55	61	67
Buyers spent	146.10 NEAR	506.09 NEAR	1,876.01 NEAR	2,172.86 NEAR	2,230.14 NEAR
Buyers net result	+9.96 NEAR	+24.44 NEAR	+418.79 NEAR	+288.82 NEAR	+37.14 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	-0.84 NEAR	-0.84 NEAR	-0.84 NEAR	-0.84 NEAR	-0.84 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.14x	1.68x	3.85x	3.85x	3.85x
Holders	5	7	33	31	20
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	74.9%	73.3%	94.7%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	8.8% · 4 of 11 hold	9.2% · 4 of 14 hold	23.0% · 9 of 20 hold
Other early buyers	2.6% · 1 of 1 hold	4.9% · 3 of 5 hold	3.4% · 4 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	11.5% · 12 wallets	14.1% · 19 wallets	26.4% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	88.5%	85.9%	73.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	73.3%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 1 merged	87.8% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	trade.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	107 s after buying · transaction	-0.10 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 62 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 72 of 129 launches (not put in a group)
2	jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	107 s after buying · transaction	-0.10 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
3	yazaplakal.send….near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	107 s after buying · transaction	-0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of trade.sendler-b.near · 62 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
4	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	108 s after buying · transaction	-0.57 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
5	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	108 s after buying · transaction	-0.12 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
6	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	107 s after buying · transaction	-0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
7	dolph.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	107 s after buying · transaction	-0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 179 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 141 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 212 of 335 launches (not put in a group)
8	74cc5b0c55d24af…1aa85	119 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	not sold	+35.87 NEAR	pair bought within 8.2 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	alola.near	2.1 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	8.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.42 NEAR	pair bought within 8.2 s of 74cc5b0c55d24af…1aa85 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	xiaochen2.near	3.4 min · transaction	120.00 NEAR	8.6 min after buying · transaction	+33.20 NEAR	none found
11	1abb937e7aebae7…3416e	3.9 min · transaction	40.00 NEAR	6.8 min after buying · transaction	+21.89 NEAR	pair bought within 16.9 s of nea1r.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	nea1r.near	4.2 min · transaction	39.60 NEAR	6.6 min after buying · transaction	+12.91 NEAR	pair bought within 16.9 s of 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	ddac09fe7093451…19a8f	7.0 min · transaction	25.00 NEAR	not sold	+18.88 NEAR	none found
14	56c9a6ef438223b….near	7.0 min · transaction	485.00 NEAR	3.8 min after buying · transaction	-35.17 NEAR	none found
15	ethereal_tentac….near	7.4 min · transaction	0.99 NEAR	not sold	+0.48 NEAR	none found
16	divx6.tg	8.2 min · transaction	100.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-28.68 NEAR	none found
17	bnearr.near	14.7 min · transaction	45.00 NEAR	not sold	+47.34 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 41.4 s of colddress6080.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.6 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.9 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
18	018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35	14.8 min · transaction	45.00 NEAR	not sold	+40.45 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches pair bought within 21.3 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.8 s of colddress6080.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.9 s of 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
19	betteralex.near	15.0 min · transaction	58.00 NEAR	not sold	+43.15 NEAR	pair bought within 13.0 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.5 s of colddress6080.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.3 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
20	nearwithmee.near	15.1 min · transaction	48.00 NEAR	not sold	+28.95 NEAR	pair bought within 21.6 s of bnearr.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of tiojacale.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-22 17:31 UTC	nearly.trade	qbtc.nearlytrade.near	0 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-11-10 11:51 UTC	nearly.trade	mmli.nearlytrade.near	0 Low	rug	live