MONFLI nearly.trade

monfli.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 80 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 4 % (364 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 26.37 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: monfli.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 15:03:28 UTC, 2.7 min after the launch: 3TmCpJ6ViCQgQ…qWk9C.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -26.37 NEAR · insiders' net result: +4.12 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 15:00:44 UTC · block 217647371 · history: launch only
Transaction99MxMmoqELcCV…MWR4L
Creatormonfli.near explorer
Poolmonfli.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy30.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-28 17:51 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)100%100%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch2.7 min2.7 min2.7 min2.7 min2.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1520202020
Buyers spent263.21 NEAR335.25 NEAR335.25 NEAR335.25 NEAR335.25 NEAR
Buyers net result-13.31 NEAR-25.87 NEAR-26.23 NEAR-26.37 NEAR-26.52 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)100%100%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result+4.12 NEAR+4.12 NEAR+4.12 NEAR+4.12 NEAR+4.12 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.23x1.23x1.23x1.23x1.23x
Holders65535
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 6.1% · 5 of 12 hold 0.1% · 3 of 13 hold 0.0% · 1 of 13 hold
Other early buyers 0% · 0 of 3 hold 0.4% · 1 of 7 hold 0.4% · 1 of 7 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)6.1% · 15 wallets0.6% · 20 wallets0.4% · 20 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)93.9%99.4%99.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 x0xdead.near 28 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 2.1 min after buying · transaction +0.69 NEAR
pair bought within 9.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 88 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 41.8 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 56.1 s of syndi95.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
early buyer in 242 of 729 launches (not put in a group)
2 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 37 s · transaction 1.70 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction -0.07 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 42.9 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.2 s of x0xdead.near · 88 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.6 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
3 c1c72277d170847…fc68d 49 s · transaction 9.90 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction -0.95 NEAR none found
4 supremegay.near 70 s · transaction 49.75 NEAR 107 s after buying · transaction -2.54 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches
pair bought within 14.3 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.3 s of alola.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5 alola.near 80 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 30.1 min after buying · transaction -0.31 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 42.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.3 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.0 s of syndi95.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6 d3418c8da337c0b…fe2ee 81 s · transaction 14.92 NEAR 106 s after buying · transaction -2.19 NEAR none found
7 syndi95.near 84 s · transaction 34.82 NEAR 88 s after buying · transaction -2.86 NEAR
pair bought within 14.3 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.0 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
8 bryan0023.near 118 s · transaction 0.30 NEAR not sold -0.08 NEAR
pair bought within 37.2 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9 slaynz.near 2.7 min · transaction 20.11 NEAR 44 s after buying · transaction -3.74 NEAR
pair bought within 16.2 s of aceng03.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 eb192bec9b454af…f3c60 2.8 min · transaction 9.95 NEAR 69 s after buying · transaction -1.71 NEAR none found
11 aceng03.near 3.0 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 39 s after buying · transaction -0.58 NEAR
pair bought within 16.2 s of slaynz.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.3 s of fahmihgg.tg · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 fahmihgg.tg 3.2 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 4.9 min after buying · transaction +0.12 NEAR
pair bought within 14.3 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 7c514f45d519861…22d81 3.9 min · transaction 49.75 NEAR 8.9 min after buying · transaction -3.18 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 7 of those launches
pair bought within 26.5 s of acd876fa672624e…fa933 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 acd876fa672624e…fa933 4.3 min · transaction 39.80 NEAR 27 s after buying · transaction -1.35 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches
pair bought within 26.5 s of 7c514f45d519861…22d81 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.7 s of tuyulz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 tuyulz.near 4.8 min · transaction 39.80 NEAR 4.3 min after buying · transaction -2.59 NEAR
pair bought within 25.7 s of acd876fa672624e…fa933 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 40.8 s of 70ee6a00362a4e8…b1263 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 vg666.near 5.3 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold -0.83 NEAR none found
17 70ee6a00362a4e8…b1263 5.4 min · transaction 4.98 NEAR 3.6 min after buying · transaction -0.19 NEAR
pair bought within 40.8 s of tuyulz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 mamoubdran.tg 6.2 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 3.3 min after buying · transaction -2.80 NEAR none found
19 08d6ac3ac921772…32053 6.8 min · transaction 6.96 NEAR 4.7 min after buying · transaction -1.03 NEAR none found
20 sessssssssss.near 7.0 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 104 s after buying · transaction -0.19 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of monfli.near

None known.