NCAT nearly.trade

ncat-20.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 85 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+50
5 of the 5 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 5 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 77%.
Evidence: launch meteor.nearlytrade.near, launch nero.nearlytrade.near, launch earnly-3.nearlytr….near, launch leo.nearlytrade.near, launch an.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (2.400% per buy, 2.400% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch ncat-20.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 4.92 NEAR 4 min before the launch from picklechain.near, whose earlier launch meteor.nearlytrade.near (made by meteorag.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 7LzBQYBQMty61RLuR…z34No, launch meteor.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'ncat' was already used 47 min earlier by another creator (ncat-19.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch ncat-19.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 16 % (1143 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 28.11 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: nearcatt.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 16:32:57 UTC, 3.1 min after the launch: 3CPtExnmcT8A3…69y3f.
Outside buyers' net result: -28.11 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.06 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 16:29:52 UTC · block 217801069 · history: launch only
Transaction	5bCNjyqXDDear…c1431
Creator	nearcatt.near explorer
Pool	ncat-20.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	1.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-29 23:28 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	289.2%
Dev's first sell after launch	3.1 min	3.1 min	3.1 min	3.1 min	3.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	18	22	22	22	22
Buyers spent	341.03 NEAR	384.63 NEAR	384.63 NEAR	384.63 NEAR	384.63 NEAR
Buyers net result	+12.90 NEAR	-10.25 NEAR	-24.64 NEAR	-28.11 NEAR	-29.94 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	289.2%
Insiders' net result	+0.06 NEAR	+0.06 NEAR	+0.06 NEAR	+0.06 NEAR	+1.91 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.36x	1.40x	1.40x	1.40x	1.40x
Holders	17	8	4	5	3
Top 10 holders' share	91.8%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	0.0% · 1 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	10.2% · 14 of 15 hold	5.2% · 3 of 15 hold	2.7% · 1 of 15 hold
Other early buyers	4.6% · 2 of 3 hold	5.5% · 3 of 6 hold	0% · 0 of 6 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	14.7% · 18 wallets	10.8% · 22 wallets	2.7% · 22 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	85.2%	89.2%	97.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	91.8%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c1c72277d170847…fc68d	59 s · transaction	29.70 NEAR	not sold	-0.47 NEAR	pair bought within 13.5 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	64 s · transaction	23.91 NEAR	78 s after buying · transaction	+2.22 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
3	6cac4e44915931a…b5879	64 s · transaction	23.91 NEAR	78 s after buying · transaction	+1.06 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1	64 s · transaction	23.91 NEAR	82 s after buying · transaction	+0.41 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	03712631d52c0ad…1b110	64 s · transaction	23.91 NEAR	82 s after buying · transaction	-0.33 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735	64 s · transaction	23.91 NEAR	86 s after buying · transaction	-1.61 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7	920b3a669f9f318…ce387	73 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	78 s after buying · transaction	-1.02 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches pair bought within 15.7 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.1 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	e8a162641a55288…58210	76 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	90 s after buying · transaction	-1.01 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 11.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.9 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.9 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d	88 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	61 s after buying · transaction	-2.24 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 37.2 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.8 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.7 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10	73b4719c0474f52…b72aa	108 s · transaction	9.90 NEAR	18.4 min after buying · transaction	-2.00 NEAR	none found
11	5b9d43abb215de7…4c173	2.1 min · transaction	49.60 NEAR	35 s after buying · transaction	-10.03 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches pair bought within 37.2 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.6 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
12	313f6cb8cea496c…cdb9c	2.4 min · transaction	0.10 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 43.1 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	7july.near	2.6 min · transaction	4.96 NEAR	35.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.71 NEAR	pair bought within 28.2 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.4 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	hatersgonnahate.near	2.8 min · transaction	24.75 NEAR	29.9 min after buying · transaction	-2.81 NEAR	pair bought within 39.1 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	6a5f652a25a04a2…53d1e	2.9 min · transaction	0.50 NEAR	28 s after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	none found
16	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	3.1 min · transaction	0.99 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 59.1 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.6 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.4 s of 7july.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
17	73f6c28b3c7f96e…022f1	3.7 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	12.5 min after buying · transaction	-3.63 NEAR	none found
18	sessssssssss.near	4.1 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	79 s after buying · transaction	-0.03 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 59.1 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
19	longisland380.near	5.2 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	23 s after buying · transaction	-2.84 NEAR	none found
20	ff8c36a0da37161…3380f	11.1 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.56 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearcatt.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-29 20:54 UTC	nearly.trade	ccn.nearlytrade.near	80 High retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-09-30 10:43 UTC	nearly.trade	amc.nearlytrade.near	80 High retro	no rug	history: launch only