NEAR nearly.trade

near-26.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (1.400% per buy, 1.400% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
  • +5
    The name 'near' was already used 16.8 h earlier by another creator (near-25.nearlytrade.near).

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (942 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 0.25 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: poliag.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-15 19:15:57 UTC, 11.7 min after the launch: V93rmPSgpJsqn…wfK6B.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -0.25 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.10 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-15 19:04:17 UTC · block 220117778 · history: launch only
Transaction9oFuCFxRnWP8A…kQFYT
Creatorpoliag.near explorer
Poolnear-26.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy1.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-15 20:12 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-15 20:12 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.97x the peak
Outside buyers in profit0 of 2 · 0%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group—
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%100%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch—11.7 min11.7 min11.7 min11.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)22222
Buyers spent5.98 NEAR5.98 NEAR5.98 NEAR5.98 NEAR5.98 NEAR
Buyers net result-0.11 NEAR-0.25 NEAR-0.25 NEAR-0.25 NEAR-0.37 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%100%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result-0.02 NEAR-0.10 NEAR-0.10 NEAR-0.10 NEAR-0.10 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.01x1.01x1.01x1.01x1.01x
Holders31110
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.2% · holds 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group — — —
Other early buyers 0.6% · 2 of 2 hold 0.5% · 1 of 2 hold 0.5% · 1 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)0.6% · 2 wallets0.5% · 2 wallets0.5% · 2 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.2%99.5%99.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 2 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer 4 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 10.1 min after buying · transaction -0.05 NEAR
2 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede 76 s · transaction 4.98 NEAR not sold -0.20 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of poliag.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-01 22:35 UTC nearly.trade amimal.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-04 14:53 UTC nearly.trade near-23.nearlytrade.near 55 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-04 20:45 UTC nearly.trade memecoinne.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-05 21:04 UTC nearly.trade daf.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-05 22:37 UTC nearly.trade exploso.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-08 15:39 UTC nearly.trade nem.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-10 11:40 UTC nearly.trade ccat-2.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-10 20:08 UTC nearly.trade coru.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-11 14:09 UTC justhoot v1 qgat-7d5eed.launchpad.justhoot.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-14 19:29 UTC nearly.trade batiman.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-14 22:15 UTC nearly.trade bat.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-16 13:17 UTC nearly.trade nearia.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-17 22:09 UTC nearly.trade miss.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-25 02:15 UTC nearly.trade superlili.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-11-10 19:24 UTC nearly.trade zolva.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated no rug live
2026-11-12 01:59 UTC nearly.trade batman-18.nearlytrade.near 25 Low undefined live