NECTAR nearly.trade

nectar.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch nectar.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (72922668f5f3b71512cf49e0ee5ff0ab65f7d4358f497fbf062d213e2f73caff) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 5 % (461 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 62 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: sushitrash.near (dev).
Outside buyers' net result: -10.17 NEAR · insiders' net result: +19.36 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 62% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 18:43:06 UTC · block 217669800 · history: launch only
Transaction	6XYmixzhUu6UG…WkTGg
Creator	launchbot.nearlytrade.near explorer
Owner (paid the launch bot)	sushitrash.near evidence: J19NLPQgbGZpF1T5cWs4VW2yMmUNPEMgDM1P77iDm6fG
Pool	nectar.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-29 08:50 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	846.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	18	21	21	21	21
Buyers spent	263.90 NEAR	293.97 NEAR	293.97 NEAR	293.97 NEAR	293.97 NEAR
Buyers net result	+9.48 NEAR	-6.75 NEAR	-9.60 NEAR	-10.05 NEAR	-10.17 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+19.36 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.50x	1.50x	1.50x	1.50x	1.50x
Holders	12	8	6	7	5
Top 10 holders' share	99.9%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	4.0% · 5 of 13 hold	0.1% · 2 of 13 hold	0.1% · 1 of 13 hold
Other early buyers	6.2% · 5 of 6 hold	3.7% · 4 of 8 hold	0.2% · 2 of 8 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	10.2% · 19 wallets	3.8% · 21 wallets	0.4% · 21 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	89.8%	96.2%	99.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	99.9%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	2e76ee631bc8d52…b63e4	29 s · transaction	14.92 NEAR	12.5 min after buying · transaction	+1.58 NEAR	none found
2	41893492be025fc…dc9ec	43 s · transaction	19.90 NEAR	11.2 min after buying · transaction	+2.66 NEAR	none found
3	e479d98acf7d405…80355	49 s · transaction	24.88 NEAR	15.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.40 NEAR	none found
4	6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d	56 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	+4.00 NEAR	pair bought within 8.7 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.5 s of c964f0a446c4f56…8802e · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.1 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5	c964f0a446c4f56…8802e	57 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	+1.35 NEAR	pair bought within 1.5 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.7 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.3 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
6	alola.near	64 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	not sold	-0.25 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 26.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.7 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
7	5b9d43abb215de7…4c173	67 s · transaction	29.85 NEAR	13.1 min after buying · transaction	-3.29 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches pair bought within 2.4 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.1 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.7 s of c964f0a446c4f56…8802e · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	91 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	6.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.01 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 26.4 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.2 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.7 s of c964f0a446c4f56…8802e · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
9	4282ce57357f41f…87b2d	99 s · transaction	4.97 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.19 NEAR	pair bought within 32.1 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.3 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10	aceng03.near	113 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.01 NEAR	pair bought within 49.0 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.8 s of slaynz.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.5 s of 4282ce57357f41f…87b2d · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11	cheapzip9640.near	2.1 min · transaction	34.82 NEAR	86 s after buying · transaction	+1.93 NEAR	pair bought within 60.0 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.3 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.8 s of 4282ce57357f41f…87b2d · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	slaynz.near	2.7 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	85 s after buying · transaction	-2.09 NEAR	pair bought within 49.8 s of aceng03.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.6 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.6 s of 8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	someonetobeloved.near	2.9 min · transaction	19.90 NEAR	7.0 min after buying · transaction	-3.07 NEAR	pair bought within 14.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	3.1 min · transaction	19.80 NEAR	43 s after buying · transaction	-2.84 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 32.6 s of sessssssssss.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.5 s of 8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.3 s of someonetobeloved.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18	3.2 min · transaction	0.40 NEAR	17.7 min after buying · transaction	-0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 25.0 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.6 s of slaynz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	sessssssssss.near	3.6 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	24 s after buying · transaction	-0.63 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 32.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.0 s of 8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.6 s of slaynz.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	capuccino88.near	4.1 min · transaction	18.61 NEAR	32.9 min after buying · transaction	-4.63 NEAR	none found
18	kai213.near	4.6 min · transaction	2.50 NEAR	not sold	-0.54 NEAR	none found
19	freshuser3857.near	5.0 min · transaction	6.00 NEAR	114 s after buying · transaction	-0.23 NEAR	none found
20	1c0f2cecc17e18c…080b4	6.9 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.22 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of sushitrash.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-28 19:16 UTC	nearly.trade	nillions-3.nearlytrade.near	5 Low retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-09-28 19:16 UTC	nearly.trade	nillions-4.nearlytrade.near	5 Low retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-09-30 14:06 UTC	justhoot v1	hootdog-c747fc.launchpad.justhoot.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-08 07:55 UTC	nearly.trade	ctq.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-08 07:59 UTC	nearly.trade	ctq-2.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-08 08:54 UTC	nearly.trade	qinu-4.nearlytrade.near	35 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only