NEKO nearly.trade

neko-5.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 65 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +30
    1 of the 1 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 1 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 47%.
    Evidence: launch ao.nearlytrade.near
  • +20
    Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (2.400% per buy, 2.400% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch neko-5.nearlytrade.near
  • +10
    Received 52.60 NEAR 10 min before the launch from truegrain1594.near, whose earlier launch ao.nearlytrade.near ended as a rug.
    Evidence: transaction HCcXVS6LGXCMmR8u1…eXk9g, launch ao.nearlytrade.near
  • +5
    The name 'neko' was already used 20.4 h earlier by another creator (neko-4.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch neko-4.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 4 % (382 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 11.00 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: equaldress8266.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 15:33:51 UTC, 4.4 min after the launch: CaWgzV4dXTMrA…VoH7L.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -11.00 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.01 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 15:29:27 UTC · block 217650282 · history: launch only
TransactionDeg5WMq9g4UhS…eRFnq
Creatorequaldress8266.near explorer
Poolneko-5.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy22.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-29 19:00 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-29 19:00 UTC
Price now0.94x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.81x the peak
Outside buyers in profit1 of 7 · 14.3%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 2 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)100%100%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch4.4 min4.4 min4.4 min4.4 min4.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)77777
Buyers spent119.00 NEAR119.00 NEAR119.00 NEAR119.00 NEAR119.00 NEAR
Buyers net result+4.27 NEAR-10.98 NEAR-11.00 NEAR-11.00 NEAR-11.00 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)100%100%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result+1.01 NEAR+1.01 NEAR+1.01 NEAR+1.01 NEAR+1.01 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.17x1.17x1.17x1.17x1.17x
Holders83355
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 6.5% · 2 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold
Other early buyers 3.3% · 5 of 5 hold 0.3% · 1 of 5 hold 0.3% · 1 of 5 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)9.8% · 7 wallets0.3% · 7 wallets0.3% · 7 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)90.2%99.7%99.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 7 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 37 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 7.0 min after buying · transaction -0.15 NEAR none found
2 vg666.near 83 s · transaction 3.00 NEAR not sold -0.24 NEAR none found
3 sessssssssss.near 2.6 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction +0.21 NEAR none found
4 xiaochen2.near 3.0 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 4.0 min after buying · transaction -1.11 NEAR none found
5 supremegay.near 3.9 min · transaction 49.75 NEAR 2.0 min after buying · transaction -3.52 NEAR
pair bought within 31.4 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
6 syndi95.near 4.4 min · transaction 29.85 NEAR 99 s after buying · transaction -4.67 NEAR
pair bought within 31.4 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
7 tuyulz.near 4.6 min · transaction 19.90 NEAR 44 s after buying · transaction -1.53 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of equaldress8266.near

None known.