NEVAR nearly.trade

nevar.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch nevar.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (b81af5384b921856e32d903cae73d0d7471a88c3a5cc8a433a1b746de04e403e) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (146 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -20.48 NEAR · insiders' net result: -1.69 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 47% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-27 13:45:45 UTC · block 217493937 · history: launch only
TransactionCiMfifZWX5F2V…pW9Qr
Creatorkashekee.near explorer
Poolnevar.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy4.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-27 21:45 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-27 21:45 UTC
Price now1.00x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.43x the peak
Outside buyers in profit13 of 30 · 43.3%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account2.0% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 15 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)2226262630
Buyers spent579.00 NEAR661.30 NEAR661.30 NEAR661.30 NEAR821.48 NEAR
Buyers net result+273.22 NEAR+32.06 NEAR-7.33 NEAR-10.75 NEAR-20.48 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+24.03 NEAR+6.15 NEAR+0.47 NEAR-0.51 NEAR-1.69 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer2.32x2.35x2.35x2.35x2.35x
Holders22121098
Top 10 holders' share77.2%99.8%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 2.0% · holds 2.0% · holds 2.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 21.7% · 13 of 15 hold 9.6% · 6 of 15 hold 4.1% · 3 of 15 hold
Other early buyers 10.9% · 7 of 8 hold 7.2% · 4 of 11 hold 2.6% · 2 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)32.5% · 23 wallets16.8% · 26 wallets6.7% · 26 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)65.5%81.2%91.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)77.2%99.8%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder84.2% · 2 merged99.8% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 e8a162641a55288…58210 42 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction +3.97 NEAR
pair bought within 57.8 s of darkoasis5043.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.6 s of irene.user.intear.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
2 irene.user.intear.near 51 s · transaction 19.38 NEAR 5.6 min after buying · transaction +21.06 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches
pair bought within 21.3 s of 7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51 72 s · transaction 29.85 NEAR 5.5 min after buying · transaction +22.08 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches
pair bought within 21.3 s of irene.user.intear.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 awwamer.near 88 s · transaction 4.00 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +3.09 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches
pair bought within 44.5 s of acd876fa672624e…fa933 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 darkoasis5043.near 100 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 30.8 min after buying · transaction +0.05 NEAR
pair bought within 57.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
6 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e 107 s · transaction 34.00 NEAR 6.2 min after buying · transaction +9.22 NEAR none found
7 cutelace2414.near 2.2 min · transaction 70.00 NEAR 5.3 min after buying · transaction +11.36 NEAR
pair bought within 40.1 s of bigvinegar9113.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
8 acd876fa672624e…fa933 2.2 min · transaction 29.85 NEAR 76 s after buying · transaction +10.98 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches
pair bought within 44.5 s of awwamer.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.1 s of raretie1442.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9 0ad68bd2e5c9544…c4fe9 2.5 min · transaction 14.92 NEAR 5.5 min after buying · transaction +3.32 NEAR none found
10 yonchan.near 2.6 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 3.2 min after buying · transaction +3.12 NEAR none found
11 bigvinegar9113.near 2.8 min · transaction 25.00 NEAR not sold -4.77 NEAR
pair bought within 40.1 s of cutelace2414.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 26.7 s of buyitall.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 colddress6080.near 2.8 min · transaction 35.00 NEAR not sold -8.00 NEAR
pair bought within 23.0 s of klosd.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 45.0 s of zambona.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 raretie1442.near 3.2 min · transaction 66.00 NEAR 5.5 min after buying · transaction -4.10 NEAR
pair bought within 29.3 s of 7c514f45d519861…22d81 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.1 s of acd876fa672624e…fa933 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 klosd.near 3.2 min · transaction 31.65 NEAR 7.0 min after buying · transaction -7.16 NEAR
pair bought within 22.0 s of zambona.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.0 s of colddress6080.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 buyitall.near 3.3 min · transaction 60.00 NEAR 20.8 min after buying · transaction -17.85 NEAR
pair bought within 26.7 s of bigvinegar9113.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 52.3 s of coolnook7072.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 nearphew.near 3.3 min · transaction 40.00 NEAR not sold -15.47 NEAR none found
17 zambona.near 3.6 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold -1.94 NEAR
pair bought within 22.0 s of klosd.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 45.0 s of colddress6080.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 7c514f45d519861…22d81 3.6 min · transaction 29.85 NEAR 3.1 min after buying · transaction +1.23 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 7 of those launches
pair bought within 29.3 s of raretie1442.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.5 s of coolnook7072.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 34763166289a4c2…e550b 3.8 min · transaction 100.00 NEAR 18.6 min after buying · transaction -34.63 NEAR none found
20 coolnook7072.near 4.2 min · transaction 15.00 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction -0.12 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches
pair bought within 29.5 s of 7c514f45d519861…22d81 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 52.3 s of buyitall.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of kashekee.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-23 23:18 UTC nearly.trade nrmil.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-24 05:58 UTC nearly.trade brh.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-26 00:51 UTC nearly.trade nearlyshif.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-26 01:18 UTC nearly.trade no95.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-26 02:35 UTC nearly.trade freedom.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-26 22:26 UTC nearly.trade early.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-27 02:10 UTC nearly.trade m6900.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-27 04:12 UTC nearly.trade babyillia.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-27 12:32 UTC nearly.trade sam.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-27 15:29 UTC nearly.trade trex-2.nearlytrade.near 25 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-27 18:27 UTC nearly.trade bninu-2.nearlytrade.near 25 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-28 04:28 UTC nearly.trade nearcon-4.nearlytrade.near 25 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-28 21:15 UTC nearly.trade nynk.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-28 21:16 UTC nearly.trade nynk-2.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-29 00:02 UTC nearly.trade madame.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-30 04:06 UTC nearly.trade winner.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-30 19:03 UTC nearly.trade aura-2.nearlytrade.near 5 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-01 20:14 UTC nearly.trade hcat-2.nearlytrade.near 25 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-02 07:38 UTC nearly.trade rheon.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-03 21:43 UTC nearly.trade nxio.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only