The largest funder's (b81af5384b921856e32d903cae73d0d7471a88c3a5cc8a433a1b746de04e403e) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (145 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 40.2 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 40.2% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +582.96 NEAR · insiders' net result: +84.04 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 56% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-27 12:32:35 UTC · block 217486524 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-30 06:13 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-30 06:13 UTC
Price now
1.15x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.19x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
48 of 139 · 34.5%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
2.7% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
0.3% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.8% · 6 of 13 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
40.2%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
212.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
7
43
57
65
134
Buyers spent
184.55 NEAR
848.84 NEAR
1,006.49 NEAR
1,098.49 NEAR
2,833.47 NEAR
Buyers net result
+30.28 NEAR
+440.75 NEAR
+373.85 NEAR
+283.20 NEAR
+582.96 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
40.2%
Insiders' net result
+7.63 NEAR
+76.88 NEAR
+68.58 NEAR
+55.81 NEAR
+84.04 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.38x
2.92x
3.11x
3.11x
5.91x
Holders
9
43
47
49
71
Top 10 holders' share
100%
59.3%
60.6%
65.5%
55.7%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
2.9% · holds
5.0% · holds
5.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
6.3% · 3 of 3 hold
14.9% · 13 of 13 hold
12.7% · 12 of 13 hold
Other early buyers
8.2% · 4 of 4 hold
14.7% · 16 of 17 hold
10.6% · 11 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
14.5% · 7 wallets
29.6% · 30 wallets
23.4% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
82.6%
65.4%
71.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
59.3%
65.5%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 1 merged
63.5% · 1 merged
69.2% · 1 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.