NRR nearly.trade

nrr-7.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 0.00% buy / 4.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.000% per buy, 3.200% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch nrr-7.nearlytrade.near
  • +5
    The name 'nrr' was already used 45.5 h earlier by another creator (nrr-6.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch nrr-6.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (frozen_sentinel.user.intear.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 14 % (1004 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -18.62 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 60% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 13:48:40 UTC · block 217784929 · history: launch only
Transaction7EL53UU1nWjia…vNSQU
Creatorlaunchbot.nearlytrade.near explorer
Owner (paid the launch bot)bjirken.near
evidence: Di85pJHgZ151tVbpMuxPdHhAr3kNaSuXK1CzniQA8fF8
Poolnrr-7.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy5.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 0.00% · sell 4.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-29 05:39 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-29 05:39 UTC
Price now0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.59x the peak
Outside buyers in profit5 of 26 · 19.2%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 10 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)415232626
Buyers spent45.00 NEAR232.25 NEAR322.22 NEAR353.28 NEAR353.28 NEAR
Buyers net result+1.74 NEAR+46.12 NEAR-2.27 NEAR-15.21 NEAR-18.62 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.07x1.46x1.64x1.64x1.64x
Holders6161398
Top 10 holders' share100%88.8%99.8%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group — 7.1% · 5 of 5 hold 0% · 0 of 10 hold
Other early buyers 4.1% · 4 of 4 hold 10.4% · 9 of 10 hold 3.8% · 5 of 16 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)4.1% · 4 wallets17.6% · 15 wallets3.8% · 26 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)95.9%82.4%96.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%88.8%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged94.4% · 2 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 buymorerhea.near 57 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 49.5 min after buying · transaction -0.32 NEAR none found
2 fb8803d7d93cac1…805e2 119 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR not sold +0.50 NEAR none found
3 ericakang.user.….near 2.4 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 39.5 min after buying · transaction -1.08 NEAR none found
4 grill.user.intear.near 3.8 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 17.7 min after buying · transaction +0.54 NEAR none found
5 tuyulz.near 5.8 min · transaction 9.92 NEAR 40 s after buying · transaction -0.58 NEAR none found
6 redbooll.near 13.2 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 12.1 min after buying · transaction +0.08 NEAR none found
7 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 13.9 min · transaction 31.78 NEAR 3.7 min after buying · transaction +5.73 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches
pair bought within 29.9 s of 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
8 58afc775688724a…7512c 14.4 min · transaction 21.19 NEAR 3.3 min after buying · transaction +0.80 NEAR none found
9 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f 14.4 min · transaction 21.19 NEAR 3.5 min after buying · transaction -1.04 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
pair bought within 29.9 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 50.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 86e3ebbd82039b2…d0e1e 14.4 min · transaction 21.19 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction -1.31 NEAR none found
11 aadeed7e3b4e6b5…bd09f 14.4 min · transaction 21.19 NEAR 3.6 min after buying · transaction -2.77 NEAR none found
12 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 14.7 min · transaction 24.80 NEAR 4.5 min after buying · transaction -2.89 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches
pair bought within 14.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.9 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
13 darknes.near 14.7 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction -0.49 NEAR
pair bought within 12.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
14 slaynz.near 14.9 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 13.4 min after buying · transaction -3.96 NEAR none found
15 e8a162641a55288…58210 14.9 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 66 s after buying · transaction +0.29 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 19.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.3 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.3 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
16 b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 15.2 min · transaction 19.86 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction -1.12 NEAR
pair bought within 20.9 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
17 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 15.2 min · transaction 19.86 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction -2.19 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 20.9 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.9 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
18 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 15.2 min · transaction 19.86 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction -1.05 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.9 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.9 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
19 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 15.6 min · transaction 7.94 NEAR 2.1 min after buying · transaction -0.62 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.9 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
20 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 15.6 min · transaction 7.94 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction -1.54 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 20.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.9 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of bjirken.near

None known.