NSB nearly.trade

nsb-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 45 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +25
    Fresh creator setup (2 of 3): it received 30.00 NEAR 3 min before the launch (largest transfer from solwhale.near); the dev buy of 35.00 NEAR is 117% of that funding.
    Evidence: transaction 2wsz8AWzS51Krmyxj…Bxv5Y
  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch nsb-2.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (423df0a6640e9467769c55a573f15b9ee999dc8970048959c72890abf5cc3a8e) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 20 % (1467 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 47.16 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: niggawhale.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-30 17:11:21 UTC, 26.3 min after the launch: CZvFwdnF3EiNC…iQ9JE.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -47.16 NEAR · insiders' net result: +5.97 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-30 16:45:02 UTC · block 217940872 · history: launch only
TransactionYX54emcZhiB91…FYN5p
Creatorniggawhale.near explorer
Poolnsb-2.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy35.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-01 00:56 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%100%100%106.2%
Dev's first sell after launch——26.3 min26.3 min26.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1733373737
Buyers spent298.69 NEAR720.41 NEAR779.28 NEAR779.28 NEAR779.28 NEAR
Buyers net result+22.76 NEAR+100.56 NEAR-45.90 NEAR-47.16 NEAR-47.52 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%100%100%106.2%
Insiders' net result+14.27 NEAR+29.88 NEAR+5.97 NEAR+5.97 NEAR+8.12 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.37x2.20x2.20x2.20x2.20x
Holders13241193
Top 10 holders' share98.8%87%99.7%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.2% · holds 3.2% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 8.2% · 9 of 14 hold 8.6% · 10 of 18 hold 1.4% · 3 of 18 hold
Other early buyers 7.4% · 3 of 3 hold 15.0% · 10 of 12 hold 0.1% · 2 of 12 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)15.6% · 17 wallets23.6% · 30 wallets1.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)81.2%73.2%98.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)98.8%87%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged94.6% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b 23 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR not sold -1.04 NEAR
pair bought within 56.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.4 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.1 s of samidbangkit.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
2 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 26 s · transaction 4.95 NEAR 2.6 min after buying · transaction +0.10 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches
pair bought within 3.4 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 53.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.8 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
3 prams.near 37 s · transaction 39.68 NEAR 2.1 min after buying · transaction +3.04 NEAR
pair bought within 10.6 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 samidbangkit.near 41 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 6.4 min after buying · transaction +0.18 NEAR
pair bought within 38.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 45.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.1 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
5 e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 61 s · transaction 98.00 NEAR 110 s after buying · transaction -6.20 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 23.6 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.3 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 49.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 79 s · transaction 28.60 NEAR 15.2 min after buying · transaction +12.44 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 17.3 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.7 s of sessssssssss.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
7 579b7294974b54d…30203 85 s · transaction 17.00 NEAR 23.3 min after buying · transaction +0.78 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 11.7 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.9 s of barrey.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.6 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 86 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 47.5 min after buying · transaction -0.33 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 10.4 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 24.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9 alola.near 97 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 15.6 min after buying · transaction +0.18 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 17.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.2 s of barrey.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10 barrey.near 101 s · transaction 13.89 NEAR 111 s after buying · transaction -2.66 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches
pair bought within 4.2 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.9 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11 sessssssssss.near 111 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 64 s after buying · transaction +0.15 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches
pair bought within 14.4 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 24.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
12 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d 116 s · transaction 70.00 NEAR 57 s after buying · transaction +0.37 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 19.3 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
13 a3cb153394cd999…41e6c 2.0 min · transaction 8.00 NEAR 50 s after buying · transaction -1.47 NEAR
pair bought within 11.0 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 37.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.5 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
14 495d3af763bd9b3…f8cd2 3.2 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 7.9 min after buying · transaction +0.26 NEAR none found
15 heavykingdom3837.near 3.9 min · transaction 49.50 NEAR 22.0 min after buying · transaction +3.69 NEAR none found
16 whaleinvestor.near 4.6 min · transaction 49.50 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction -7.64 NEAR none found
17 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c 5.0 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 8.6 min after buying · transaction +17.35 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches
pair bought within 40.9 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 majorgif6716.near 5.3 min · transaction 49.50 NEAR 22.5 min after buying · transaction -17.38 NEAR none found
19 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 5.6 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 3.3 min after buying · transaction -0.34 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches
pair bought within 40.9 s of 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.8 s of 84730cb083829b6…d761e · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.4 s of c04e67f0a60bb23…48c62 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20 84730cb083829b6…d761e 6.0 min · transaction 0.99 NEAR 8.1 min after buying · transaction -0.0039 NEAR
pair bought within 22.8 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of niggawhale.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-30 16:35 UTC nearly.trade nsb.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro rug history: launch only