NSB nearly.trade

nsb.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch nsb.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (423df0a6640e9467769c55a573f15b9ee999dc8970048959c72890abf5cc3a8e) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 20 % (1464 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 22.72 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: niggawhale.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-30 16:38:53 UTC, 3.2 min after the launch: AtcznqYrkNSds…zPrtM.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -22.72 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.39 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-30 16:35:44 UTC · block 217939938 · history: launch only
TransactionBajc875jcTxSd…EBPd3
Creatorniggawhale.near explorer
Poolnsb.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy2.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-01 04:54 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)100%100%100%100%199.5%
Dev's first sell after launch3.2 min3.2 min3.2 min3.2 min3.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2024242424
Buyers spent295.00 NEAR412.73 NEAR412.73 NEAR412.73 NEAR412.73 NEAR
Buyers net result+69.76 NEAR+1.72 NEAR-22.69 NEAR-22.72 NEAR-23.21 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)100%100%100%100%199.5%
Insiders' net result+0.39 NEAR+0.39 NEAR+0.39 NEAR+0.39 NEAR+2.27 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.61x1.61x1.61x1.61x1.61x
Holders189252
Top 10 holders' share88.2%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 16.2% · 16 of 18 hold 6.1% · 6 of 18 hold 1.3% · 2 of 18 hold
Other early buyers 5.1% · 2 of 2 hold 5.7% · 3 of 6 hold 0% · 0 of 6 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)21.3% · 20 wallets11.8% · 24 wallets1.3% · 24 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)78.7%88.2%98.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)88.2%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder93.4% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 87 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 9.9 min after buying · transaction +1.28 NEAR
pair bought within 12.2 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.7 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.8 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
2 d1de82541ee4575…a191b 98 s · transaction 0.99 NEAR 18.6 min after buying · transaction +0.10 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches
pair bought within 47.2 s of alola.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.7 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
3 bem1ne.near 99 s · transaction 9.90 NEAR 5.8 min after buying · transaction +2.03 NEAR
pair bought within 11.0 s of 84730cb083829b6…d761e · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.5 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 99 s · transaction 4.95 NEAR 108 s after buying · transaction +1.10 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches
pair bought within 12.2 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.6 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
5 84730cb083829b6…d761e 110 s · transaction 3.46 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction +0.19 NEAR
pair bought within 11.6 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.6 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.2 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
6 47dd6e35850af27…57fd4 119 s · transaction 38.61 NEAR 18.0 min after buying · transaction +2.38 NEAR
pair bought within 20.8 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.5 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.3 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
7 d435e818b5a2c20…8b7db 2.1 min · transaction 29.76 NEAR 3.1 min after buying · transaction +8.50 NEAR none found
8 kimpet77.near 2.2 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction +1.93 NEAR
pair bought within 10.1 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 48.8 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 37.1 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9 ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 2.4 min · transaction 1.98 NEAR 67 s after buying · transaction +0.08 NEAR
pair bought within 0.6 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.5 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 alola.near 2.4 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.18 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 47.2 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.1 s of kimpet77.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.8 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11 65f4b6882bc1d56…5fc6b 2.9 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 4.6 min after buying · transaction -6.49 NEAR
pair bought within 29.5 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e 3.3 min · transaction 40.00 NEAR 3.8 min after buying · transaction +1.78 NEAR
pair bought within 54.7 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 45.0 s of barrey.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.6 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 579b7294974b54d…30203 3.9 min · transaction 19.00 NEAR 10.7 min after buying · transaction -2.56 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 11.4 s of barrey.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 51.6 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 44.3 s of sessssssssss.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
14 barrey.near 4.1 min · transaction 4.96 NEAR 6.2 min after buying · transaction -0.27 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches
pair bought within 11.4 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.3 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
15 nea1r.near 4.4 min · transaction 39.68 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction -3.70 NEAR none found
16 c1c72277d170847…fc68d 4.5 min · transaction 19.80 NEAR not sold -6.56 NEAR
pair bought within 23.6 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17 sweetibis8395.near 4.5 min · transaction 9.90 NEAR 18.1 min after buying · transaction -2.72 NEAR
pair bought within 38.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.1 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 sessssssssss.near 4.6 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 76 s after buying · transaction -0.86 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches
pair bought within 13.4 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 44.3 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.3 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
19 e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 4.8 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 53 s after buying · transaction -3.27 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 51.6 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.3 s of sessssssssss.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.1 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
20 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 4.8 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 61 s after buying · transaction -0.77 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches
pair bought within 13.4 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.3 s of barrey.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 57.7 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of niggawhale.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-30 16:45 UTC nearly.trade nsb-2.nearlytrade.near 45 Elevated retro rug history: launch only