NSTART nearly.trade

nstart.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch nstart.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 20 % (1452 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 12.97 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 2635.6% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: nixy28.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-30 16:04:21 UTC, 21.2 min after the launch: G5eqJRfRuNyex…2dXiX.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -12.97 NEAR · insiders' net result: +3.51 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-30 15:43:08 UTC · block 217934659 · history: launch only
TransactionHt1eFH928x3d6…3g8jE
Creatornixy28.near explorer
Poolnstart.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.10 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 15:47 UTC

17 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit23 12 of 53 outside buyers
Buy pressure0 buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak45 the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity0 0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-12 17:12 UTC
Price now0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.45x the peak
Outside buyers in profit12 of 53 · 22.6%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 22 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—0%100%2635.6%168.6%
Dev's first sell after launch——21.2 min21.2 min21.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1144505153
Buyers spent259.75 NEAR663.76 NEAR934.69 NEAR938.69 NEAR966.69 NEAR
Buyers net result+59.73 NEAR+238.79 NEAR-7.56 NEAR-12.97 NEAR-22.70 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—0%100%2635.6%168.6%
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR+0.01 NEAR+0.01 NEAR+3.51 NEAR+3.94 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.55x2.23x2.23x2.23x2.23x
Holders11379106
Top 10 holders' share99.8%70.8%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing <0.01% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 16.0% · 9 of 9 hold 20.8% · 17 of 22 hold 7.0% · 3 of 22 hold
Other early buyers 4.0% · 2 of 2 hold 5.8% · 6 of 8 hold 3.0% · 3 of 8 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)19.9% · 11 wallets26.6% · 30 wallets10.0% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)80.1%73.4%90.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)99.8%70.8%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged82.2% · 3 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 95 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 15.4 min after buying · transaction +2.29 NEAR
pair bought within 7.1 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 59 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.1 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
2 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a 95 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 53.6 min after buying · transaction +1.03 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 56 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 59 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.1 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.1 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
3 d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b 102 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold +3.79 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches
pair bought within 7.1 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.1 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
4 db9077fc36538dd…6c79b 102 s · transaction 60.00 NEAR not sold +6.00 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 7.1 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.1 s of 0d76b5633dbe9a7…31d9a · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 109 s · transaction 9.90 NEAR 8.4 min after buying · transaction +6.49 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches
pair bought within 13.7 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.7 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 41.5 s of supremegay.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
6 syndi95.near 2.5 min · transaction 24.80 NEAR 12.9 min after buying · transaction +12.29 NEAR
pair bought within 3.6 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 37.9 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 51.6 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
7 supremegay.near 2.5 min · transaction 54.56 NEAR 13.0 min after buying · transaction +21.01 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches
pair bought within 3.6 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.2 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 41.5 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
8 llllord.near 3.9 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 8.7 min after buying · transaction +15.33 NEAR none found
9 d1de82541ee4575…a191b 4.0 min · transaction 0.50 NEAR not sold -0.09 NEAR
pair bought within 13.6 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 4.2 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 12.1 min after buying · transaction +2.81 NEAR
pair bought within 13.6 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
11 72a005f5e3ea9fc…93927 4.5 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 7.1 min after buying · transaction +2.63 NEAR none found
12 9f6627910d339dc…aa48f 6.0 min · transaction 19.80 NEAR 12.6 min after buying · transaction +0.17 NEAR none found
13 c1c72277d170847…fc68d 6.1 min · transaction 49.50 NEAR not sold -13.01 NEAR none found
14 bem1ne.near 6.3 min · transaction 14.85 NEAR 20.7 min after buying · transaction -2.91 NEAR
pair bought within 47.3 s of 84730cb083829b6…d761e · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 eeeb3e53f579ab2…f3428 6.5 min · transaction 19.80 NEAR 17.0 min after buying · transaction -2.41 NEAR none found
16 smallbank992.near 6.8 min · transaction 2.00 NEAR not sold -0.64 NEAR none found
17 84730cb083829b6…d761e 7.1 min · transaction 0.99 NEAR 5.1 min after buying · transaction +0.06 NEAR
pair bought within 47.3 s of bem1ne.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 bbm320.near 8.0 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 34.1 min after buying · transaction -0.32 NEAR none found
19 wildjaguar2131.near 8.3 min · transaction 9.90 NEAR 8.5 min after buying · transaction -1.85 NEAR none found
20 579b7294974b54d…30203 8.6 min · transaction 25.00 NEAR 16.8 min after buying · transaction -6.73 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 58.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.5 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 24.6 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nixy28.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-30 16:27 UTC nearly.trade nbonk.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-09-30 16:44 UTC nearly.trade npaid-2.nearlytrade.near 55 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-09-30 17:21 UTC nearly.trade analos.nearlytrade.near 50 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-01 00:06 UTC nearly.trade none.nearlytrade.near 70 High retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-01 00:09 UTC nearly.trade nowl.nearlytrade.near 70 High retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-01 01:39 UTC nearly.trade nsr.nearlytrade.near 80 High retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-03 15:15 UTC nearly.trade nscan.nearlytrade.near 60 High retro undefined history: launch only
2026-10-03 17:43 UTC nearly.trade hoje.nearlytrade.near 60 High retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-04 21:07 UTC nearly.trade usmeme.nearlytrade.near 60 High retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-15 21:04 UTC nearly.trade pfp.nearlytrade.near 60 High retro no rug history: launch only
2026-11-12 15:00 UTC nearly.trade sdc.nearlytrade.near 35 Low rug live