9 of the 24 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (4 by the creator and 5 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 36%.
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 60.00% of it (0.600% per buy, 0.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 4000).
v2r signals (weights fitted on launch history before the split date), two expert rules whose points are set by hand (a creator name that resembles a notable account; a fresh account funded through Intents or an exchange) and the creator's fee, whose points are an expert rule too: 8 points per 1 % of the trade that goes to the creator, at most 40 (not fitted). The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 19 % (249 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
Rug — fast (by T+60 min).
Outside buyers lost 0.60 NEAR.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Passed the threshold at 2026-11-12 15:01:12 UTC, 44 s after the launch: 6QicGdsrtiCrz…NfvJV.
Outside buyers' net result: -0.60 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-13T15:00 UTC with config v2l-1.
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC
24out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
0
0 of 7 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
95
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-12 15:05 UTC
Price now
0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.95x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
0 of 7 · 0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 7 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Dev's first sell after launch
44 s
44 s
44 s
44 s
44 s
Buyers (other than the insiders)
7
7
7
7
7
Buyers spent
15.50 NEAR
15.50 NEAR
15.50 NEAR
15.50 NEAR
15.50 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.57 NEAR
-0.60 NEAR
-0.60 NEAR
-0.60 NEAR
-0.60 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Insiders' net result
-0.0000 NEAR
-0.0000 NEAR
-0.0000 NEAR
-0.0000 NEAR
-0.0000 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.03x
1.03x
1.03x
1.03x
1.03x
Holders
3
0
0
0
0
Top 10 holders' share
100%
—
—
—
—
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.2% · 3 of 7 hold
0% · 0 of 7 hold
0% · 0 of 7 hold
Other early buyers
—
—
—
All early buyers (the six rows above)
0.2% · 7 wallets
0% · 7 wallets
0% · 7 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
99.8%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
—
—
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
—
—
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 7 wallets that bought, and what links them
early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
What the links mean
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.