NULLS nearly.trade

nulls.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 80 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+50
4 of the 4 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 4 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 73%.
Evidence: launch hagglebot.nearlyt….near, launch ftr-4.nearlytrade.near, launch nearlana-2.nearly….near, launch nvana.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (0.700% per buy, 0.700% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
Evidence: launch nulls.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 21.50 NEAR 3 min before the launch from brainarmstrong.near, whose earlier launch hagglebot.nearlytrade.near (made by hagglebot.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction H9spJv9PopwdQkmX1…p8LJ6, launch hagglebot.nearlyt….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (796 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 4.26 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: nullsxyz.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-16 21:17:13 UTC, 73 s after the launch: eVmzEainWsnKT…4Vn7N.
Outside buyers' net result: -4.26 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.34 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-16 21:16:00 UTC · block 220275726 · history: launch only
Transaction	Dv5sekHA4ZEF8…Ty9xy
Creator	nullsxyz.near explorer
Pool	nulls.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-17 08:23 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-17 08:23 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.88x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	0 of 4 · 0%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 4 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	102.1%
Dev's first sell after launch	73 s	73 s	73 s	73 s	73 s
Buyers (other than the insiders)	4	4	4	4	4
Buyers spent	57.50 NEAR	57.50 NEAR	57.50 NEAR	57.50 NEAR	57.50 NEAR
Buyers net result	-4.13 NEAR	-4.26 NEAR	-4.26 NEAR	-4.26 NEAR	-4.26 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	102.1%
Insiders' net result	+1.34 NEAR	+1.34 NEAR	+1.34 NEAR	+1.34 NEAR	+1.73 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.11x	1.11x	1.11x	1.11x	1.11x
Holders	2	0	0	3	3
Top 10 holders' share	100%	—	—	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.6% · 2 of 4 hold	0% · 0 of 4 hold	0% · 0 of 4 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	—
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0.6% · 4 wallets	0% · 4 wallets	0% · 4 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	99.4%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	—	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	—	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 4 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	2 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	91 s after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.4 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 54 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.9 s of 567e43c697f4113…84e34 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
2	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	10.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.13 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.8 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.3 s of 567e43c697f4113…84e34 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	10 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	12.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.39 NEAR	pair bought within 6.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 54 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.5 s of 567e43c697f4113…84e34 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	567e43c697f4113…84e34	16 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	65 s after buying · transaction	-3.72 NEAR	pair bought within 13.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.5 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nullsxyz.near

None known.