POKENEAR nearly.trade

pokenear.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch pokenear.nearlytr….near

The largest funder's (tenziestika.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (822 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 21.26 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: pokenearfun.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-16 18:52:17 UTC, 5.1 min after the launch: 94dvPKizJ8eYY…JgnmD.
Outside buyers' net result: -21.26 NEAR · insiders' net result: +7.91 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-16 18:47:10 UTC · block 220260769 · history: launch only
Transaction	8PckXdBQsBn4v…hLjLF
Creator	pokenearfun.near explorer
Pool	pokenear.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	18.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-17 11:07 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	107.0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	5.1 min	5.1 min	5.1 min	5.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	27	28	28	28	28
Buyers spent	311.86 NEAR	313.86 NEAR	313.86 NEAR	313.86 NEAR	313.86 NEAR
Buyers net result	+46.22 NEAR	-19.98 NEAR	-21.05 NEAR	-21.26 NEAR	-24.29 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	107.0%
Insiders' net result	+9.09 NEAR	+7.91 NEAR	+7.91 NEAR	+7.91 NEAR	+9.12 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.71x	1.71x	1.71x	1.71x	1.71x
Holders	22	7	8	8	4
Top 10 holders' share	87.3%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.7% · holds	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	15.5% · 14 of 17 hold	4.7% · 4 of 17 hold	4.6% · 3 of 17 hold
Other early buyers	2.5% · 9 of 10 hold	0.5% · 5 of 11 hold	0.1% · 3 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	17.9% · 27 wallets	5.1% · 28 wallets	4.7% · 28 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	80.4%	94.9%	95.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	87.3%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	88.8% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	65 s after buying · transaction	+0.23 NEAR	pair bought within 1.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.7 s of alola.near · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
2	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 bot_developer	4 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	78 s after buying · transaction	+0.58 NEAR	pair bought within 1.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	4 s · transaction	20.07 NEAR	not sold	-0.21 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 70 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
4	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	22 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	12.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.08 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 17.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 142 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.2 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
5	pramsndut.near	26 s · transaction	29.70 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	+12.29 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 22.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	567e43c697f4113…84e34	28 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	+7.20 NEAR	pair bought within 23.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.3 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
7	4fff4175970134e…82fa3	38 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-3.53 NEAR	pair bought within 12.1 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8	34a5cb274a65051…58f1e	40 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	6.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.58 NEAR	pair bought within 6.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.6 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
9	hybrid.user.int….near	44 s · transaction	20.79 NEAR	9.8 min after buying · transaction	-4.94 NEAR	pair bought within 39.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.9 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
10	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	47 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	-4.67 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 3.2 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
11	alola.near	50 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.26 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 45.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
12	31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3	50 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.71 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 28.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
13	rce09ee77bfaefe….near	56 s · transaction	0.10 NEAR	not sold	-0.03 NEAR	none found
14	liminiate.near	2.0 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	6.7 min after buying · transaction	-0.21 NEAR	none found
15	525be0f25e7adf4…c36ef	2.1 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.32 NEAR	pair bought within 32.6 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	suisucks.near	2.4 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	93 s after buying · transaction	+0.86 NEAR	none found
17	i1156173191.tg	2.5 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	16.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.29 NEAR	none found
18	sleet.near	2.5 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	9.3 min after buying · transaction	-1.41 NEAR	none found
19	axxe.near	2.6 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-6.03 NEAR	pair bought within 4.3 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.2 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	godmeme.near	2.6 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	20.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.63 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of pokenearfun.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-16 20:21 UTC	justhoot v1	pokenear-4e7dc7.launchpad.justhoot.near	60 High retro	undefined	history: launch only