PROOFCYCLE nearly.trade

proofcycle-3.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch proofcycle-3.near….near
+5
The name 'proofcycle' was already used 7 min earlier by another creator (proofcycle-2.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch proofcycle-2.near….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1712 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 55 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 109.4% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: proofcyclereal.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-02 09:02:55 UTC, 1175.3 min after the launch: 9ucGZQQw1mnD2…PGxHC.
Outside buyers' net result: -24.12 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.21 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 55% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-01 13:27:37 UTC · block 218063020 · history: launch only
Transaction	HEX1ipxyWbyFd…Ho2aj
Creator	proofcyclereal.near explorer
Pool	proofcycle-3.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	22.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-02 09:09 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	109.4%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	1175.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	22	34	34	34	34
Buyers spent	265.85 NEAR	477.76 NEAR	477.76 NEAR	477.76 NEAR	477.76 NEAR
Buyers net result	+26.79 NEAR	-22.03 NEAR	-22.29 NEAR	-22.76 NEAR	-24.12 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	109.4%
Insiders' net result	+8.84 NEAR	+1.48 NEAR	+1.33 NEAR	+0.97 NEAR	+1.21 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.49x	1.72x	1.72x	1.72x	1.72x
Holders	16	9	8	8	3
Top 10 holders' share	81.3%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	2.0% · holds	2.0% · holds	2.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	15.7% · 15 of 21 hold	2.0% · 5 of 25 hold	1.5% · 3 of 25 hold
Other early buyers	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 5 hold	0% · 0 of 5 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	15.7% · 22 wallets	2.0% · 30 wallets	1.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	82.3%	96.0%	96.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	81.3%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 3 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	10 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.12 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches pair bought within 13.7 s of neverekt.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.1 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	e8a162641a55288…58210	23 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	47 s after buying · transaction	+0.55 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 48.1 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.3 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.8 s of neverekt.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
3	neverekt.near	24 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	32.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.07 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches pair bought within 22.4 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.7 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4	dryoil1584.near	40 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	9.5 min after buying · transaction	+10.22 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.5 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.6 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.9 s of flatbat5958.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
5	finequiche1009.near	41 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	63 s after buying · transaction	+6.71 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 15.4 s of flatbat5958.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.4 s of lowfrog6012.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6	stillurial1675.near	45 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	9.7 min after buying · transaction	+7.34 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 4.1 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.6 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.3 s of flatbat5958.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
7	3347dd8076331ad…52407	47 s · transaction	0.20 NEAR	28 s after buying · transaction	-0.0032 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 22.4 s of neverekt.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.8 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8	lowfrog6012.near	56 s · transaction	26.00 NEAR	13.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.13 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of flatbat5958.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.4 s of finequiche1009.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.3 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	flatbat5958.near	56 s · transaction	26.00 NEAR	10.9 min after buying · transaction	+3.24 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of lowfrog6012.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.4 s of finequiche1009.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.3 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	71 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.16 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 48.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.4 s of flatbat5958.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.4 s of lowfrog6012.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
11	wetpuma8279.near	84 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	20 s after buying · transaction	-2.09 NEAR	pair bought within 43.5 s of dryoil1584.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of longquiche338.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.2 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
12	longquiche338.near	84 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	20 s after buying · transaction	-0.35 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 27.6 s of flatbat5958.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.6 s of lowfrog6012.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.9 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
13	b8185e452876272…dff87	101 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.21 NEAR	pair bought within 29.8 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.6 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7	102 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	+1.21 NEAR	pair bought within 31.0 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	e00953313c9b49e…b1762	117 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.10 NEAR	pair bought within 45.5 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	roughzone8076.near	2.0 min · transaction	22.00 NEAR	12.2 min after buying · transaction	-4.69 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 18 of those launches pair bought within 3.1 s of sickuser1627.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.3 s of longquiche338.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.5 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
17	sickuser1627.near	2.0 min · transaction	17.00 NEAR	12.1 min after buying · transaction	-2.44 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches pair bought within 3.1 s of roughzone8076.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.5 s of longquiche338.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.7 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
18	hnic.near	2.5 min · transaction	0.20 NEAR	101 s after buying · transaction	+0.0043 NEAR	none found
19	realsite8942.near	2.7 min · transaction	25.00 NEAR	11.4 min after buying · transaction	-6.19 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 44.3 s of roughzone8076.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.1 s of sickuser1627.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of sharpharbor717.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	sharpharbor717.near	2.7 min · transaction	25.00 NEAR	11.4 min after buying · transaction	-7.70 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 44.3 s of roughzone8076.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of realsite8942.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.1 s of sickuser1627.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of proofcyclereal.near

None known.