REX nearly.trade

rex.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch rex.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 3 % (318 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 20.11 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 216.8% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: drfarbis.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 13:32:35 UTC, 48.9 min after the launch: DpC6uBQrfFVc3…K94Vt.
Outside buyers' net result: -20.11 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.86 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 12:43:43 UTC · block 217633540 · history: launch only
Transaction	A3P8LGWrpUYZi…FSQoX
Creator	drfarbis.near explorer
Pool	rex.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	1.74 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-29 03:27 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	216.8%	216.8%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	48.9 min	48.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	21	24	25	25	25
Buyers spent	424.47 NEAR	432.20 NEAR	433.20 NEAR	433.20 NEAR	433.20 NEAR
Buyers net result	+31.75 NEAR	-19.74 NEAR	-20.06 NEAR	-20.11 NEAR	-20.24 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	216.8%	216.8%
Insiders' net result	+0.79 NEAR	+0.03 NEAR	-0.03 NEAR	+1.86 NEAR	+1.86 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.70x	1.70x	1.70x	1.70x	1.70x
Holders	14	6	6	6	6
Top 10 holders' share	97.3%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.2% · holds	0.2% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	13.4% · 8 of 16 hold	0% · 0 of 16 hold	0% · 0 of 16 hold
Other early buyers	4.0% · 4 of 5 hold	0.7% · 4 of 8 hold	0.5% · 3 of 9 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	17.5% · 21 wallets	0.7% · 24 wallets	0.5% · 25 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	82.4%	99.2%	99.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	97.3%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	99.0% · 2 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	x0xdead.near	27 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	6.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.90 NEAR	pair bought within 7.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 88 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.1 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 242 of 729 launches (not put in a group)
2	7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51	27 s · transaction	29.85 NEAR	10.4 min after buying · transaction	+1.86 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches pair bought within 53.1 s of irene.user.intear.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.1 s of supremegay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
3	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	34 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	36 s after buying · transaction	+0.06 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 7.3 s of x0xdead.near · 88 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.8 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.3 s of 7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
4	supremegay.near	40 s · transaction	48.76 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	+9.63 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 5.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.1 s of x0xdead.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.1 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5	ebisidiaidi.near	57 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	112 s after buying · transaction	+13.32 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 17.1 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.5 s of lorenzo18.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.8 s of irene.user.intear.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
6	cb74c2b4f338549…8c094	78 s · transaction	10.94 NEAR	11.7 min after buying · transaction	-2.32 NEAR	none found
7	irene.user.intear.near	80 s · transaction	38.71 NEAR	9.7 min after buying · transaction	-8.64 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches pair bought within 53.1 s of 7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.1 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
8	biganiga.near	97 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	+2.37 NEAR	none found
9	lorenzo18.near	114 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	44 s after buying · transaction	+0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 56.5 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.4 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.6 s of sessssssssss.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	aceng03.near	2.0 min · transaction	7.00 NEAR	111 s after buying · transaction	-0.42 NEAR	pair bought within 43.9 s of coolnook7072.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.2 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.4 s of 5008cb4b7bd395e…37b4f · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
11	sessssssssss.near	2.1 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.27 NEAR	pair bought within 7.2 s of aceng03.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.1 s of 5008cb4b7bd395e…37b4f · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.7 s of coolnook7072.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
12	5008cb4b7bd395e…37b4f	2.2 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.34 NEAR	pair bought within 4.1 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.4 s of aceng03.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	cheapzip9640.near	2.4 min · transaction	25.00 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	-5.44 NEAR	pair bought within 22.8 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	internisactive.near	2.6 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	78 s after buying · transaction	-0.76 NEAR	pair bought within 6.1 s of coolnook7072.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.5 s of sessssssssss.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.8 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	a30e636b9ed87aa…729fa	2.7 min · transaction	53.73 NEAR	70 s after buying · transaction	-5.26 NEAR	pair bought within 39.0 s of aceng03.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.8 s of coolnook7072.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	coolnook7072.near	2.8 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	64 s after buying · transaction	-1.52 NEAR	pair bought within 43.9 s of aceng03.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.1 s of internisactive.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.7 s of sessssssssss.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
17	bananatoys.near	3.1 min · transaction	0.10 NEAR	not sold	-0.04 NEAR	none found
18	70ee6a00362a4e8…b1263	3.1 min · transaction	4.97 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	-1.06 NEAR	pair bought within 24.2 s of coolnook7072.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.9 s of tuyulz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19	4f0d4ce0c1f6b26…109c7	3.3 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	10.2 min after buying · transaction	-7.59 NEAR	none found
20	widekale1939.near	3.4 min · transaction	35.00 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	-10.37 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of drfarbis.near

None known.